EUR/USD Feb. 23 – Testing Critical Resistance

EUR/USD is rising and hesitating towards critical resistance after an impressing comeback yesterday. Will it break higher this time? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  Euro/Dollar jumped above 1.3700 and managed to stay there.
• Current range – 1.37 – 1.3760

• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.37, 1.3610, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
• Above: 1.37, 1.3760, 1.3830,  1.3950, 1.4030, 1.4160 and 1.4230.
• 1.3440 is important support below – just proved itself last week – EUR/USD escaped it once again.
• The  failure  to conquer the critical 1.3760 a few weeks ago was a bearish sign. Will it break higher this time.

Euro/Dollar below on higher ground- click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

• 6:30 French CPI. Exp. -0.1%. Actual -0.2%.
• 10:00 European Industrial New Orders. Exp. -0.8%. Actual +2.1%. Euro positive.
• 15:00 US Existing Home Sales. Exp. 5.27 million.
• 17:00 ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet talks.
• 17:15 ECB member Axel Weber talks.
• 18:30 US FOMC member Charles Plosser talks.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• The devastating earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand, now has a more limited effect.
• The civil war in Libya is horrible, but the pledge by the Saudis to fill in for the missing capacity lowered the price of oil and weakened the dollar..
• The hawkish comment by ECB members, Mersch and Smaghi about raising the rates continue to boost the Euro.
• Irish debt is a big burden: There are growing talks of a default in Ireland. Opposition party in Ireland, Fine Gael,  wants a haircut for senior bondholders. Now they have a precedent of a  default in Denmark to rely on. The current government left this issue for the next government. Elections are held on Friday, February 25th.
• A bailout for Portugal is getting closer as bond yields are rising and becoming unsustainable again.

Currensee Community: 59% are long , 41% are short. These are 1383 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.