EUR/USD Feb. 28 – Rising on Inflation

EUR/USD kicked off the week  slightly higher as oil prices resume rises and more signs of inflation are seen in Europe. This comes despite worries about the state of the Irish bailout loom. We have a very day and a busier week ahead. Where will it go? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  Euro/Dollar made a move lower and then returned back to the 1.3760 line.
• Current range – 1.3760 – 1.3860.

• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.3760, 1.37, 1.3610, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
• Above:  1.3860,  1.3950, 1.4030, 1.4160 and 1.4230.
• 1.3440 is important support below – just proved itself last week – EUR/USD escaped it once again.
• 1.3760 turned into a pivotal line.

Euro/Dollar around the 1.3760 line – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

• 7:00 German Import Prices. Exp. +1.1%. Actual +1.5%.
• 10:00 European CPI. Exp. +2.4%. Core CPI exp. +1.2%.
• 13:30 US Personal Spending. Exp. +0.5%.
• 13:30 US Personal Income. Exp. +0.4%.
• 13:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Exp. +0.1%.
• 14:45 US Chicago PMI. Exp. 67.9 points.
• 15:00 US Pending Home Sales. Exp. -2.2%.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• The hawkish comment by ECB members, Mersch and Smaghi about raising the rates continue to boost the Euro, despite the fact that inflation is “imported” – not a result of domestic pressures. We have a rate decision in Europe on Thursday.
• The Irish people have spoken out – the government that signed the bailout plan has been kicked out and the new government will renegotiate the bailout program. See the analysis of how the Irish elections can weaken the Euro.
• A  bailout for Portugal is getting closer as bond yields are rising and becoming unsustainable again. They might further rise after the Irish elections.
• Libyan civil war is still going on – Gaddafi’s exit didn’t happen just yet. The price of oil continues to rise. Note that there is unrest also in Oman, Yemen and even in Saudi Arabia. Tomorrow there’s a “day of rage” in Iran – which jailed opposition leaders Mousavi and Karoubi. Higher oil weakens the dollar.
• China lowered its growth target to 7%, although this has a rather minor impact.

Currensee Community: 60% are long , 40% are short. These are 1488 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.