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EUR/USD made a big dive yesterday, and is now finding low support before the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls and the Egyptian riots continue. How will it end the week? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  Tight range between 1.3610 to 1.3640.
  • Current range – 1.3610 to 1.37.
EUR USD Chart February 4
EUR USD Chart February 4 - Click to enlarge
  • Further levels in both directions: Below    1.3610, 1.3576, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
  • Above: 1.37, 1.3760, 1.3830,  1.3950, 1.4030, 1.4160 and 1.4230.
  • 1.3760 returns to be a big hurdle after breakdown.
  • 1.3440 is important support below.

Euro/Dollar manages taking a break after breakout- click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

  • 11:30 Jean-Claude Trichet talks.
  • 13:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls. Exp. 138K.
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Rate. Exp. 9.5%

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Tension mounts towards Non-Farm Payrolls. Will they be better this time? See the Non-Farm Payrolls preview.
  • Trichet didn’t lift tone against inflation. This sent the Euro down yesterday.
  • Egyptian crisis: Fresh escalation as anti-government and pro-Mubarak protesters clash violently. Is Egypt entering a civil war? There are rumors that Obama told the Egyptian army to bring Mubarak down. An escalation is positive for the dollar.
  • S&P downgraded Ireland’s credit rating. Unsurprising, but a reminder that the crisis isn’t over. Opposition party in Ireland wants a haircut for senior bondholders.
  • Greek default? Plans are drawn for a making a 25% haircut on Greek debt, codenamed “Brady plan”. This has been overshadowed by the events in Egypt.
  • Spanish bond yields are sliding to 5.08%, quite a low level.

Currensee Community: 63% are long , 37% are short. These are 1376 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.