EUR/USD continues to have a quiet week, as the pair continues to trade in the low-1.35 range in Thursday trading. We could see some activity from the pair after the ECB sets the benchmark interest rate later in the day. In the US, there are two key events on the schedule – Trade Balance and the all-important Unemployment Claims.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
- EUR/USD edged lower in the Asian session, closing at 1.3525. There has been no change early in the European session.
Current range: 1.3515 to 1.3580
- Below: 1.3515, 1.3450, 1.34, 1.3320, 1.3240, 1.3175 and 1.31.
- Above: 1.3580, 1.3650, 1.37 and 1.3800.
- 1.3515 has switched to support and is a weak line. 1.3450 is stronger.
- 1.3580 is providing resistance.
- 9:10 Eurozone Retail PMI. Actual 50.5 points.
- Tentative – French 10-year Bond Auction.
- 11:00 German Factory Orders. Exp. 0.3%.
- 12:30 US Challenger Job Cuts.
- 12:45 ECB Minimum Bid Rate. Exp. 0.25%.
- 12:45 ECB Press Conference.
- 13:30 US Trade Balance. Exp. -35.8B.
- 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 337K.
- 13:30 US Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity. Exp. 2.8%.
- 13:30 US Preliminary Unit Labor Costs. Exp. -0.7%.
- 15:00 US FOMC Member Daniel Tarullo Speaks.
- 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage.
*All times are GMT For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
- ADP Nonfarm Payrolls slide, Unemployment Claims up next: ADP Non-Farm Employment took a hit in January, sliding to 175 thousand, compared to 238 thousand a month earlier. This was well shy of the estimate of 191 thousand. Is the ADP release a prelude to grim tidings from the official Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday? If the NFP falters as well, the Fed could delay its next QE taper and the fallout from such a negative message could hurt the US dollar.
- All eyes on ECB rate announcement: Later on Thursday, the ECB sets its benchmark interest rate for February. With the benchmark interest rates at record low levels of 0.25%, there isn’t much to cut. However, ECB head Mario Draghi’s press conferences have been market-movers in the past and the ECB head could well have a surprise up his sleeve, such as negative deposit rates. Eurozone inflation indicators continue to point to low levels of inflation, with the headline figure at the lows of October: 0.7%. Core inflation is at 0.8%, well below the ECB target of 2.0% but still higher than the lowest level of 0.7% seen in December. With the exception of Germany, the region continues to struggle with little growth and low inflation. Will the ECB take action or keep a steady course? ECB Preview: 5 scenarios – negative deposit rate now, or later?
- Services PMIs point higher: Eurozone Services PMIs were positive in January. The Spanish and Eurozone numbers came in above the 50-point line, pointing to expansion. Italian Services PMI also improved, but remains in contraction mode. These numbers come on the heels of Manufacturing PMIs which also looked solid. However, Eurozone Retail Sales looked weak, dropping by 1.6%, well off the estimate of a 0.7% decline. This key consumer spending indicator has posted declines in three of the past four readings, pointing to weak consumer spending, which is a key component of economic growth.
- Spanish employment data falters: Spanish Unemployment Change jumped to 113 thousand, shocking the markets which had expected a decrease. The Spanish employment minister tried to put a positive spin on the data, noting that January typically jumps higher, and this figure was the lowest January increase since 2007. Recent Spanish data has looked strong, but clearly the staggering unemployment levels will continue to weigh on the Eurozone’s fourth largest economy.
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