Search ForexCrunch
  • EUR dips below 1.1820 during Friday.
  • Greenback finds strength amid the upbeat ADP report.  
  • All eyes on NFP data, as it’ll come out during the trading session.

Our EURUSD forecast shows the euro first fell below the 1.1850 level. Still, they then recovered to show indications of stability throughout the trading session on Thursday, as traders began to focus on Friday’s critical jobs report.

EURUSD forecast – fundamentals

On Friday, the EURUSD accelerates its decline, losing ground for the fifth consecutive session and trading at levels last seen in early April. All on the back of the greenback’s steady resurgence.

Indeed, the improving sentiment in the dollar has put the pair under additional pressure after the FOMC issued an unexpectedly hawkish statement at its June meeting.

This week’s support for the dollar was bolstered by positive findings from the ADP report and the weekly Initial Claims, which were released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

Sellers continue to dominate the sentiment around EURUSD for the time being, as spot price movement is projected to exclusively follow dollar dynamics, particularly following the most recent FOMC meeting, chances of rising inflation, and potential tapering earlier than planned.

However, the Non-Farm Payroll statistics will be released during the trading session on Friday, and this will, of course, have a significant impact on what occurs in this pair. As a result, it should come as no surprise that the market has turned around and begun to show signs of life.

EURUSD technical analysis: key levels in action

After yesterday’s surge, our EURUSD forecast shows the pair bounced bearishly as it neared the 1.1888 level, resuming the bearish trend with its next objective at 1.1780, grouped inside the bearish channel seen on the chart.

The MA continues to support the projected decrease by exerting constant negative pressure on the price, reminding you that it is critical to remain below 1.1888 to maintain the proposed bearish trend.

As the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, a fall from 1.2265 should hit 1.1703 support. On the upside, a break above the 1.1883 minor barriers will first neutralize the intraday bias. However, a break of the 1.1974 resistance level is required to suggest a downtrend.

Today’s trading range is predicted to be between 1.1740 support and 1.1920 resistance.

eurusd forecast - 4-hour chart of EUR/USD
4-hour chart of EUR/USD

Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!

67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.