The European Central Bank is set to make its penultimate decision of the year amid ongoing low inflation, or lowflation if you with.
This is always a market moving event. What range can we expect for EUR/USD? What is the bias? Here is the view from BTMU
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
The following is EUR/USD range and outlook for next week as provided by Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (BTMU).
EUR/USD – BEARISH BIAS – (1.2400-1.2800).
The recent stability of the euro against the US dollar is threatened by the less dovish than expected FOMC statement which has increased the likelihood that the Fed will begin to raise rates earlier than in late 2015. The Fed’s decision to make their commitment to keep rates low for a considerable time more dependent on incoming employment and inflation data will also likely make the US dollar more sensitive to the upcoming release of the non-farm payrolls report for October.
We expect the ADP survey in the week ahead to be consistent with other leading indicators signalling employment growth has likely accelerated. Strengthening labour market conditions continue to argue in favour of stronger US dollar. In contrast, weak growth and low inflation in the euro-zone leave the euro vulnerable to the downside in the near-term.
The ECB is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged in the week ahead. However, ECB President Draghi may signal that it is considering corporate bond purchases and acknowledge that downside risks to inflation have increased given the sharp fall in price of crude oil. In these circumstances, it appears likely that EUR/USD will soon retest the recent low from just above the 1.2500-level.
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