EUR/USD Jan. 25 – Falling to Support

EUR/USD approached higher resistance but failed to break above it and fell all the way to the support line Is it gaining strength for the next move, or is it a sign that this move is over?   Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  traded between 1.3640 to 1.3687, before sliding in the European session.
• Current range – 1.3576 to 1.37.


EUR USD Chart January 25 - Click to enlarge

• Further levels in both directions: Below   1.3576, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970, 1.2920,  1.28, 1.2722, 1.2587.
• Above     1.37, 1.3786, 1.3950, 1.4030 and 1.4220.
• 1.3440 is the key level – it has stopped the Euro so many times in the past – we’ve seen false breakouts in both directions. This is the key on the downside.
• 1.37 proves to be strong resistance.

Euro/Dollar dropping within range – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

• 7:00 GfK German Consumer Climate. Exp. 5.5 points. Actual 5.7 – Euro positive
• 7:45 French Consumer Spending. Exp. +0.4%. Actual +0.6%.
• 14:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Exp. -1.4%.
• 15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Exp. 54.5 points.
• 15:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Exp. 23 points.
• 15:00 US HPI. Exp. -0.1%.

* All times are GMT. For more events later in the week, see the EUR/USD forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• British contraction in Q4 weighs on the Euro and adds to the falls.
• Spain’s program to shore up the troubled savings banks (cajas) receives a warm welcome, although this looks like the situation in Ireland one year ago. Spanish yields are 5.28%- slightly higher than yesterday.
• Strategists shift positions in favor of the Euro.
• Irish prime minister resigned from leading his party. Currently this has little impact.
• Inflation is becoming problematic for Europe. This comes as employment is still high. Double trouble for Europe. Trichet showed concerns about inflation and boosted the Euro. Less fear from a rate hike helps the Euro – a rate hike is also pushed by German PPI.

Currensee Community: 63% are long , 37% are short. These are 1359 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment. 

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