EUR/USD Jan. 26 – Rising in Channel, Bound by

EUR/USD continues to rise in the wide channel, but the same resistance is holding it down. Will it break uptrend support or surge upwards?   Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  traded in a narrow range between 1.3660 to 1.37..
• Current range – 1.3576 to 1.37.

• Further levels in both directions: Below   1.3576, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970, 1.2920,  1.28, 1.2722, 1.2587.
• Above     1.37, 1.3786, 1.3950, 1.4030 and 1.4220.
• Uptrend support is getting closer, 1.3630 at the time of writing, and can cushion a fall.
• 1.37 proves to be strong resistance – very stubborn in recent days.
• 1.3440 is the key downside level – it has stopped the Euro so many times in the past.

Euro/Dollar between two lines – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

• 7:00 German Import Prices. Exp. +1.3%. Actual 2.3%. A reminder of inflation.
• 15:00 US New Home Sales. Exp. 302K.
• 19:15 US rate decision. No change expected, but currencies will rock.

* All times are GMT. For more events later in the week, see the EUR/USD forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Focus is on Ben Bernanke. No change is expected regarding the interest rate. Any changes in the statement will shake the markets. See FOMC preview for details.
• Spain’s program to shore up the troubled savings banks (cajas) is doubted by some analysts – this looks like the situation in Ireland one year ago. Spanish yields are 5.40%- significantly higher.
• British contraction in Q4 weighs on the Euro.
• There are some concerns if the Irish parliament will indeed ratify the finance bill. This is essential for the EU / IMF bailout program.
• Inflation is becoming problematic for Europe. This comes as employment is still high. Double trouble for Europe. Trichet showed concerns about inflation and boosted the Euro.

Currensee Community: 63% are long , 37% are short. These are 1359 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment. 

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