Euro dollar continues to hold on to higher ground as the consolidation continues. Strong industrial output from France helped a bit. There are many doubts if it can move higher from here. The Merkozy summit didn’t provide exciting solutions. Uncertainty remains high regarding Greece, and Italy continues having sky high yields. Is another fall coming?
Here’s an update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.
- Further levels in both directions: Below 1.2760, 1.2663, 1.2580, 1.2520 and 1.24.
- Above: 1.2873, 1.2945, 1.30, .13060, 1.3145, 1.3212 and 1.3280.
- The break above 1.2760 isn’t confirmed yet. 1.2873 is much more serious resistance.
- The big level below is 1.2587, and other levels are more minor.
Euro/Dollar losing New Year gains- click on the graph to enlarge.
- 7:45 French Industrial Production. Exp. +0.1%. Actual +1.1%.
- 15:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Exp. +0.5%.
- 15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Exp. 45.3 points.
- 15:30 US FOMC member John Williams talks.
- 16:10 US FOMC member Sandra Pianalto talks.
For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast
- Italian yields remain high: The ECB’s limited actions only keep 10 year yields from moving above 7%, but this is still too high. The technocrat PM Mario Monti said that approaching the IMF would be bad for the euro-zone’s third largest country. The echoes from a bad bond auction in which Italy paid high prices once again are still heard.
- Merkozy Meeting Disappoints: German and French leaders discussed the fiscal union issues but not current affairs Merkel said that no county should leave the euro-zone, and rejected the use of the ECB, even though Draghi is getting closer to this.
- All wrong in Greece: After Greece’s PM Papademos said that the country will default in March without a second bailout plan, the IMF also said the country needs more aid. In addition, some IMF members have doubt that Greece has a chance to make. The Private Sector Involvement (PSI) scheme isn’t getting closer, and a German politician said the country needs a bigger haircut. Greek industrial output contracted sharply.
- Tensions around Iran mounts: The European Union is expected to approve an oil embargo on Tehran on January 23rd. In the meantime, a death sentence was issued for an American citizen in Iran. The potential closure of the Straight of Hormuz keeps oil prices up and depresses some potential dollar gains.
- US Non-Farm Payrolls Encouraging: The US job market gained 200K jobs in December and the unemployment rate fell once again, to 8.5% this time. This continues the positive trend seen in US figures, but it also relies on tax incentives that expired. The big question remains open: can the US decouple from the rest of the world?
- France and EFSF successful auctions: The euro-zone’s second largest economy had a nice bond auction. Nevertheless, this wasn’t enough to stop the drop of the euro. The EFSF bailout fund also had a successful auction. The perfect AAA credit rating of . France might lose two notches.