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The euro started the new trading week  in promising fashion,  but has  changed its tune  and has posted sharp losses against the US dollar. EUR/USD  crashed below the 1.30 line  on Tuesday after the Portuguese finance and foreign ministers resigned.  The  pair  continues to lose ground on Wednesday, as  the Italian and Eurozone Service PMIs  fell short of their estimates. However, there was some relief from Eurozone Retail Sales, which climbed to a four-month high. In the US,  it promises to be a busy day with  four key releases on the schedule – ADP Non-Farm Payrolls, Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

  • Asian session: Euro/dollar was fairly steady, touching a  low of 1.2961  and consolidating at 1.2974. Early in the European session, the pair  dropped sharply, falling to a low of 1.2924. EUR/USD has recovered slightly, and was trading at 1.2947.

Current range: 1.2940 – 1.3000.

Further levels in both directions:     EUR USD Daily Forecast July 3rd


  • Below: 1.2940, 1.2890, 1.2840, 1.28, 1.2750  and  1.27.
  • Above: 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3160, 1.32, 1.3255, 1.3350, 1.34, 1.3434 and  1.3480.
  • 1.2940 is facing pressure on the downside. 1.2890 is next.
  • 1.3000 is providing weak resistance. This is followed by 1.3050.

Euro  struggling in mid-129 range after  weak Euro PMIs  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:15 Spanish Services PMI. Exp.  47.8 points. Actual 47.8 points.
  • 7:45  Italian Services PMI. Exp.  47.1 points. Actual 45.8 points.
  • 8:00  Eurozone Final  Services PMI. Exp.  48.6 points. Actual 48.3 points.
  • 9:00  Eurozone Retail Sales. Exp. 0.4%. Actual 1.0%.
  • 11:30 US  Challenger Job Cuts.
  • 12:15 US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. Exp. 161K.
  • 12:30 US Trade Balance. Exp. -40.3B.
  • 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 345K.
  • 14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 54.3 points. See how to trade this event with USD/JPY.
  • 14:00 US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew Speaks.
  • 14:30  US  Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. -2.6M.
  • 16:00 US Natural Gas Storage. Exp. 75B.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment