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EUR/USD  lost over  one cent on Thursday, and has dropped below the 1.29 level.  The markets reacted negatively to remarks by Mario Draghi at a press conference on Thursday. Speaking after the ECB policy meeting, which maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.50%, Draghi reiterated that the ECB’s monetary policy would remain accommodative as long as needed. It’s a quiet day in the Eurozone, with just two releases. French Trade Balance disappointed, dropping to a three-month low. German Factory Orders will be released later on Friday. Over in the US, the  markets  were closed for the July 4th holiday,  and are   back in action as the US releases Non-Farm  Payrolls and the  Unemployment Rate.  

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

  • Asian session: Euro/dollar edged below the 1.30 line, touching a  low of 1.2889  and consolidating at 1.2896. In the European session, the pair is unchanged.

Current range: 1.2840 – 1.2890.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2840, 1.28, 1.2750  and  1.27.
  • Above: 1.2890, 1.2940, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3160, 1.32, 1.3255, 1.3350, 1.34, 1.3434 and  1.3480.
  • 1.2890  is providing weak resistance.  1.2940 is next.
  • On the downside, there is weak support at 1.2840. This is followed by the round number of 1.2800.

Euro drops sharply after Draghi comments – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 6:45 French Trade Balance. Estimate -45.B. Actual -6.0B.
  • 10:00 German Factory Orders. Estimate 1.3%.
  • 12:30 US Non-Farm Employment Change. Exp. 163K. See how to trade this event with EUR/USD.
  • 12:30 US Unemployment Rate. Exp. 7.5%.
  • 12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Exp. 0.2%.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

EUR USD Daily Forecast July 5th