EUR/USD managed to take itself out of the lows and it moved back up one trading range. The recent weak data from the US is to blame, and today we have more important figures to close the week with some volatility. Can the pair rise back above 1.36 to the pre-Draghi levels once again?
Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair.
- EUR/USD stabilized on higher ground after the move in the US session.
- Current range: 1.3550 to 1.3585.
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.35, 1.3450 and 1.34
- Above: 1.3550, 1.3585, 1.3650, 1.3677, 1.37, 1.3740, 1.3785, 1.3830, 1.3865 and 1.3905.
- 1.35 remains a weak support line. 1.3450 follows.
- 1.3550 is an immediate resistance line. 1.3585 is next.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 5:30 French Non-Farm Payrolls. Exp. -0.1%, actual -0.1%.
- 6:00 German Final CPI, exp. +0.9%, actual +0.9%. HICP 0.6% as expected.
- 7:00 Spanish inflation numbers: CPI exp. +0.2%, actual +0.2%. HICP exp. +0.2%, actual +0.2%.
- 8:00 Italian inflation numbers. CPI exp. +0.5%, HICP exp. +0.4%.
- 9:00 Euro-zone Employment Change. Exp. +0.1%.
- 9:00 EZ trade balance. Exp. +15.9 billion.
- 12:30 US PPI, exp. +0.1%, core exp. +0.2%.
- 13:55 US UoM Consumer Sentiment. Exp. 83.2 points. See how to trade the figure with EURUSD.
*All times are GMT
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Eurozone inflation remains weak: Even though the ECB has already made its decision, inflation data remains of importance for the next moves. French and Spanish inflation numbers remain weak, and we could see a downgrade in the final euro-zone CPI for May published next week, keeping the pressure on the ECB. The jump in oil prices following the deterioration in Iraq could push inflation higher next week.
- US retail sales disappoint: The American consumer is not so active as expected in the second full month of the spring. With the US economy reliant on consumption, this isn’t encouraging. More consumer data is expected today and will be in the limelight. Also the rise in jobless claims is somewhat disappointing, after we already received better data from the US job openings number.
- Euro weighed by yield differential: The impact of Draghi is still felt on markets: yields in the euro-zone are low and they are beginning to be in contradiction with other regions: the BOE’s Mark Carney said that UK rates will rise sooner than current expectations and this boosted the pound. EUR/GBP fell below 0.80. In New Zealand, the hawkish central bank hints at more hikes. On this background, the easing ECB could push the euro even lower. We will get the US rate decision next Wednesday..
- US politics weigh on dollar: The US has issues of its own. The ousting of Eric Cantor in the Republican primaries in favor of a more militant politician could underpin the stalemate in US politics.
Further reading: EUR/USD Drops to Revisit Four-Month Lows around 1.3500 Support
Share
