Euro dollar continues tumbling down almost all PMIs disappointed. This adds to losses that began with the press conference of Ben Bernanke and before the European leaders meet to discuss the never ending crisis in Greece. There are quite a few more events today. Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.
EUR/USD Technicals
- Asian session: The slide continued, with the pair gradually falling to the 1.4282. The breakout came afterwards.
- Current range 1.4220 – 1.4282.
- Further levels in both directions: Below 1.4220, 1.4160, 1.4030, 1.3950, 1.3860, 1.3750, 1.3440.
- Above: 1.4282, 1.4375, 1.4450, 1.4550 and 1.4650.
- If the break under 1.4282 is convincing, 1.4220 is only minor support before 1.4160.
- 1.4375 is a minor line on the upside. We’ve seen that 1.4450 is of higher importance.
Euro/Dollar falling – click on the graph to enlarge.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 7:00 French Flash Services PMI. Exp. 61.1. Actual 56.7. Big disappointment, that is followed by more.
- 7:00 French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 54.2. Actual. 52.2.
- 7:30 German Flash Services PMI. Exp. 55.8. Actual 58.3.
- 7:30 German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 57.1. Actual 54.9.
- 8:00 All-European Flash Services PMI. Exp. 55.5. Actual 54.2
- 8:00 All-European Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.9 points. Actual 52. Almost all PMI were disappointing.
- 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 414K.
- 13:00 Belgian NBB Business Climate. Exp. -1.1 points.
- 14:00 US New Home Sales. Exp. 311K.
- 16:00 ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet talks.
For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast
EUR/USD Sentiment
- No QE3: In the press conference that followed the rate decision, Ben Bernanke played down the option of another quantitative easing program. He compared the same period one year ago, and said that employment is rising faster and there is no threat of deflation now. No new dollar printing is good for the dollar.
- No expectations for Greece right now: After the Greek parliament voted for the government in the confidence vote, we have some relatively quiet days until Wednesday, when the parliament will vote on the new austerity measures. The EU summit that begins today isn’t expected to solve anything. The decision was delayed to July 3rd. In the meantime, protests continue and you can never know what will happen. European leaders are still split, after the agreements between Merkel and Sarkozy on Friday collapsed.
- Spanish yields on the rise again: Spanish bond yields are close to 5.6% once again. The banks are increasingly dependent on the ECB. This is not only due to Greek contagion, but also to the fear that there is a lot of hidden debt in Spain. The region of Valencia got a rating cut from S&P.
- German banks ready to contribute: Over the weekend, it seems that pressure for restructuring of Greek debt pushed the German banks to volunteer to participate in Greek losses. This joins approval from Jean-Claude Juncker to the German plan and a comment made by a senior German adviser that a Greek default could be weathered. The ECB is cornered.
FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index shows bigger gains for the euro: 58% are short, lower than beforehand. According to this contrarian index, this shows slower rises for EUR/USD.
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