EUR/USD June 28 – Losing Some Gains As Tension Mounts

Euro dollar is losing some ground as the tension mounts towards the Greek votes in the parliament. The gains made earlier came on the hope that there is some Grand Plan B for Greece to save the day. European indicators have been mixed. Will we see a break out? We have some US figures ahead.

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session: Quiet session saw the pair edge higher, but then retreat.
• Current range 1.4220 to 1.4282.

• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.4220, 1.4160, 1.4120, 1.4030, 1.3950, 1.3860, 1.3750, 1.3440.
• Above:   1.4282, 1.4375, 1.4450, 1.4550 and 1.4650.
• 1.4282 is now weaker resistance but is still an important hurdle on any recovery attempts.
• 1.4160 provides support, although stronger support is at 1.4030.

Euro/Dollar drifting lower  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 6:00  GfK German Consumer Climate. Exp. 5.4. Actual 5.7 points. Positive surprise.
• 6:00  German Import Prices. Exp. -0.4%. Actual -0.6%.
• 13:00  S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Exp. -3.9%.
• 14:00 US  CB Consumer Confidence. 60.8 points.
• 14:00 US  Richmond Manufacturing Index. Exp. 2 points.
• 16:00 US FOMC  Richard Fisher talks.
• 18:45 ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet talks.

For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Plan B: It has come to light that European leaders are working on a Plan B for Greece. It’s about time. The German finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, said that Europe is prepared for the worst, and will be able to cope with it. Also the Austrian prime minister  Werner Faymann, said that the option of default cannot be ruled out. George Soros said that Greece leaving the Euro-zone is probably inevitable.
• Not enough votes for Greek austerity? Discussions begin today in the parliament with the final vote set for Thursday. A comment by the deputy prime minister casts doubts on whether the austerity measures will pass in the Greek parliament.The plan  already has some hole… The important vote is the second one, on the laws that implement the plan, and especially the laws about privatization.
  
• Private sector contribution: A conference in Rome is discussing details of a private sector participation in the Greek crisis – by rolling over the Greek debt. This comes after the French banks agreed  to Greek restructuring. They are the biggest holders of Greek debt. The big question is: Will CDS will be triggered under this “voluntary” participation?
• No QE3: In the press conference that followed the rate decision, Ben Bernanke played down the option of another quantitative easing program. He compared the same period one year ago, and said that employment is rising faster and there is no threat of deflation now. No new dollar printing is good for the dollar.