EUR/USD June 6 – Sliding In High Range on Weak Data

EUR/USD is sliding within the high range it reached n Friday, as weak economic data and uncertainty around Greece weigh on the pair . Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session: Normal session saw the pair challenge the top of the range but not go very far. The slide began in the European session.
• Current range 1.4580 – 1.4650.

• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.4580, 1.4520, 1.4450, 1.4375, 1.4282 1.4160, 1.4030, 1.3950.
• Above:  1.4650, 1.47, 1.4775, 1.4882, 1.4940.
• 1.4580 serves only as weak support. Much more serious support is at 1.4450.
• 1.4882 is the big hurdle on top.

Euro/Dollar sliding in range  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 8:30 European  Sentix Investor Confidence. Exp. 9.4 points. Actual 3.5 – big disappointment.
• 9:00 European  PPI (April). Exp. +0.8%. Actual +0.9%.
• 17:15 US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner talks.
• 21:30 US FOMC member  Richard Fisher talks.

For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Details for Greece awaited: The Euro enjoyed the news about an upcoming deal for Greece. But according to the German finance ministry, this isn’t certain. The details, especially private sector participation, are still unclear. It’s also unclear if the current Greek government can pass the measures. In the meantime, the central bank in Greece is about to ask the banks to prepare for a possible haircut. See more in 3 Risk Factors in the Euro-zone this week.
• Weak US economy: The series of weak figures last week culminated in the horrible Non-Farm Payrolls. The big question is: will the US drag everybody down?
• Greece Junked: Rating agency Moody’s downgraded Greece once again. The difference this time was not only the three notches downgrade, but also the putting the debt in C status – meaning junk.
• First German bank acknowledges Greek haircut: The German Landesbank NordLB wrote down assets related to Greek bonds. Although the sum is small, this is a precedent.
• Weak European figures: Inflation came out weaker than expected. So did German retail sales and German unemployment and other European numbers. On Thursday, the ECB will decide on a new interest rate. The fate of the euro this week depends on the words of Jean-Claude Trichet in the press conference.

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index shows larger gains for the euro: 68% are short, less  than 60% beforehand. According to this contrarian index, this shows even stronger  gains for EUR/USD.