Euro dollar was unable to break higher, and is now losing support as global worries from China and the US mount. Slightly weak European data is also weighing on the euro. Is this the calm before the storm? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.
EUR/USD Technicals
- Asian session:A quiet session saw the pair trade in the high range.
- Current range 1.4580 to 1.4650.
- Further levels in both directions: Below 1.4650, 1.4580, 1.4520, 1.4450, 1.4375, 1.4282 1.4160, 1.4030.
- Above: 1.47, 1.4775, 1.4882, 1.4940 and 1.5020.
- 1.4650 serves only as weak support. Much more serious support is at 1.4450.
- 1.4882 is the big hurdle on top.
Euro/Dollar sliding in range – click on the graph to enlarge.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 6:00 German Trade Balance. Exp. 14 billion. Actual 12 billion.
- 6:45 French Trade Balance. Exp. -5.6 billion. Actual -7.1 billion.
- 9:00 European Revised GDP. Exp. +0.8%.
- 10:00 German Industrial Production. Exp. +0.1%.
- 18:00 US Beige Book.
For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast
EUR/USD Sentiment
- China collapse: An article about an upcoming Chinese collapse triggers worries and also weighs on the “risky” euro.
- Ben Bernanke doesn’t provide hope: The chairman of the Federal Reserve was busy answering to his critics but didn’t provide hope about the global economy. At least he didn’t talk about QE3…
- Calls for a lower exchange rate: Jim O’Neill, of Goldman Sachs, that manages over $800 billion, says that the correct EUR/USD rate should be 1.20. And also Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the Eurogroup, talked about an overvalued euro in a discussion held in the European parliament.
- Details for Greece awaited: The Euro enjoyed the news about an upcoming deal for Greece. But according to the German finance ministry, this isn’t certain. The details, especially private sector participation, are still unclear. It’s also unclear if the current Greek government can pass the measures. In the meantime, the central bank in Greece is about to ask the banks to prepare for a possible haircut. See more in 3 Risk Factors in the Euro-zone this week.
- Weak US economy: The series of weak figures last week culminated in the horrible Non-Farm Payrolls. The big question is: will the US drag everybody down?
- Greece Junked: Rating agency Moody’s downgraded Greece once again. The difference this time was not only the three notches downgrade, but also the putting the debt in C status – meaning junk.
- First German bank acknowledges Greek haircut: The German Landesbank NordLB wrote down assets related to Greek bonds. Although the sum is small, this is a precedent.
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