EUR/USD Mar. 15 – Drifting to Lower Range

EUR/USD drifts into lower range as discussions in Europe continue and the fear of a meltdown in Japan’s nuclear reactors continues. Will we see a breakout after the US rate decision? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  After trading at high ground, Euro/Dollar drifted to a lower range and made swings towards lower support.
• Current range – 1.3860 – 1.3950.

• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.3860, 1.3760, 1.37, 1.3610, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
• Above:  1.3950, , 1.4030, 1.4160, 1.4282, 1.44
• While the round number of 1.40 is eyed by many, real resistance is only at 1.4030. This was clearly seen just now.
• Support at 1.3860 is of importance once again, as it prevented significant falls.

Euro/Dollar in same range under resistance – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

• 6:30 French CPI. Exp. +0.6%. Actual +0.5%.
• 10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Exp. 16.2 points.
• 10:00 All-European ZEW Economic Sentiment. Exp. 34.5 points.
• 12:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Exp. 16.2 points.
• 12:30 US Import Prices. Exp. +0.9%.
• 13:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Exp. 59.3 billion.
• 14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Exp. 17 points.
• 18:15 US Rate decision. Statement expected to be moderately hawkish.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Japanese Earthquake rocks markets: The markets refuse to settle down after the big pledge by the BOJ for stability. The fires and blasts at one of the nuclear reactors made USD/JPY very nervous, and this affects other currencies as well.
• FOMC Statement: The Members of the Federal Reserve meet to make a decision on the rates in the US. No change is expected, but every word of the statement will be closely eyed. Expectations are for a hint about completing the QE2 program and not commencing on QE3. This may be moderately positive for the US dollar.
• Bailout for Portugal – While a higher commitment to help the Euro-zone has been heard at the summit, the decisions made there fall short of a solution for Portugal. It’s getting closer. Today, the economy ministers meet. Here’s a  full analysis of the EU Summit.
• Moody’s downgrades Spain’s credit rating by one level to AA2 but at the moment, Spanish bond yields are falling, showing hope that the crisis will pass over the Euro-zone’s fourth largest economy.

Currensee Community: 60% are long , 40% are short. These are 1369 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.