EUR/USD Mar. 17 – Looking to Higher Ground

EUR/USD looks to move higher, still within range, as the Japanese disaster rages. Many important figures are released today. Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  Bounced off the 1.3860 level and managed to cross 1.3950 once again.
• Current range – 1.3950 – 1.4030.

• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.3950, 1.3860, 1.3760, 1.37, 1.3610, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
• Above:   1.4030, 1.4160, 1.4282, 1.44
• 1.40 is watched by Trichet and European politicians, but real resistance is felt only at 1.4030. This is clearly seen over and over again.
• Support at 1.3860 just worked like a charm once again. This range becomes frustrating.

Euro/Dollar in same range and looking to move higher – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

• 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 388K. Employment is the key for a stronger economy and a stronger dollar.
• 12:30 US CPI. Exp. +0.5%. Will inflation be seen in the US as well?
• 12:30 US Core CPI. Exp. +0.1%.
• 13:15 US Industrial Production. Exp. +0.7%.
• 13:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Exp. 76.6%.
• 14:00 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Exp. 29.9 points.
• 14:00 US CB Leading Index. Exp. +0.9%.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Japanese Nuclear Disaster: Fears that the situation is totally out of control in the Fukishima nuclear reactors send USD/JPY lower. The trigger of stop order sent USD/JPY to 76.25 before recovering, still under the previous low. This action weighed on EUR/USD temporarily. Here’s more about the USD/JPY collapse.
• Bailout for Portugal – Portuguese officials are already speaking out loud about a bailout option if the budget isn’t approved. This joins the downgrade by Moody’s and the weak decision in the EU Summit. Here’s a  full analysis of the EU Summit.
• FOMC Statement: Ben Bernanke and the other members made no changes to the interest rate or the QE2 program. But, the statement was relatively hawkish, dedicating many words to “monitoring inflation”. See the FOMC Review for more.
• Moody’s downgrades Spain’s credit rating by one level to AA2 but at the moment, Spanish bond yields are falling to 5.20%, showing the world is focusing on Japan.

Currensee Community: 62% are long , 38% are short. These are 1391 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.