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EUR/USD manages to recover from the blow it got from Portugal, but is still capped by resistance. The troubled EU leaders begin their summit today, as important US figures are released. Lots of action ahead. Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  Euro/Dollar dropped constantly during the session, and made some recovery afterwards..
  • Current range – 1.4030 – 1.4160

EUR USD Chart March 24

  • Further levels in both directions: Below 1.4030, 1.3950, 1.3860, 1.3760, 1.37, 1.3610, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
  • Above:    1.4160, 1.4282, 1.4450, 1.4580, 1.48, 1.50.
  • 1.4282 couldn’t be challenged. This is the highest level in a year (reached in November). We currently see a bounce.
  • 1.4030 now turned into important support after being broken – this is the key level to lower ones. The pair escaped it after the fall of the Portuguese government.

Euro/Dollar losing some steam  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

  • 8:00  French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 56.1 points. Actual 56.6
  • 8:00  French Flash Services PMI. Exp. 59.6. Actual 60.7.
  • 8:30  German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 62.1. Actual 60.9.
  • 8:30  German Flash Services PMI. Exp. 58.5. Actual 60.1.
  • 9:00 European  Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 58.3. Actual 57.7.
  • 9:00 European  Flash Services PMI. Exp. 56.4. Actual 56.9.
  • 12:30 US  Unemployment Claims. Exp. 388K
  • 12:30 US  Durable Goods Orders. Exp. 1.2%. Core order exp. +2.1%.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Bailout for Portugal – The Portuguese parliament rejected the budget with the new austerity measures. This triggered the resignation of the Portuguese government, and the fall of the Euro. Portugal has a big load of debt to pay and failed to calm investors. A bailout is underway, the problem is – with which government will it be signed?
  • EU Summit:. The summit begins at terrible timing. Apart form Portugal, also Irish banks are struggling. It’s also unclear once again if all the original fund will be available for bailout. This erases the few achievements of the first EU Summit, that also fell short of providing a comprehensive solution. Here’s a  full analysis of the EU Summit.
  • European officials state rate hike is underway:  Mersch and especially Trichet as well as others, leave no point for doubt that the upcoming ECB meeting will decide to hike the interest rate. These talks  sent the Euro higher, but the Portuguese situation is beginning to get the limelight.
  • US Unemployment Claims: This weekly indicator gradually becomes of higher importance, especially as the fluctuations in the NFP become wilder and wilder. Employment is the key for recovery in the US, and for the dollar.
  • International Currency Intervention: The G7 countries intervened to push the yen lower and aid Japan’s economy in the face of the earthquake. This had a side effect of weakening the dollar against the Euro. No fresh interventions have been recorded since Friday. These moves can rock the Euro as well.
  • Libyan Airstrikes Weakening: Air strikes in Libya began over the weekend but have waned off.  See a full analysis of the UN decision on Libya and the implications for oil and the dollar. Currentl oil continues to rise as the regime in Yemen is on the brink of collapse, and Mid-East protests have spread to as far off as Syria.

Currensee Community: 61% are long , 39% are short. These are 1367 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.