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EUR/USD managed to settle on higher ground, but the break is very cautious. It’s a busy day with the ECB meeting and last hints for the Non-Farm Payrolls. Will it hold to these gains? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  Quiet session sees Euro/Dollar around 1.3860.
  • Current range – 1.3860 – 1.3950.

EUR USD Chart March 2

  • Further levels in both directions: Below 1.3860, 1.3760, 1.37, 1.3610, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
  • Above:  1.3950, 1.4030, 1.4160 and 1.4230.
  • 1.3860 is the current pivotal line.
  • 1.3760 is important support now.
  • Major support is only at 1.3440.

Euro/Dollar around the 1.3860 line – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

  • 7:00 German Retail Sales. Exp. +0.5%.
  • 9:00 European Final Services PMI. Exp. 57.2 points.
  • 10:00 European Revised GDP. Exp. +0.3%.
  • 10:00 European Retail Sales. Exp. +0.4%.
  • 12:45 European Rate Decision. Exp. unchanged at 1%.
  • 13:30 ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet speaks at press conference.
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 394K.
  • 13:30 US Revised Nonfarm Productivity. Exp. 2.6%.
  • 14:00 US FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota talks.
  • 15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 59.6 points

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • For the EUR/USD, the main event is the press conference of Jean-Claude Trichet – if he raises his tone and says something like “heightened alertness” instead of “closely monitoring”, this will be  interpreted as if the rate hike will come at the next meeting – this will send the Euro higher. If the same words are copied from last time,the Euro will fall. For more analysis about this event, see the ECB Preview.
  • Libyan civil war is still going on –  Gaddafi’s exit didn’t happen just yet. Counter attacks by Gaddafi’s forces on an important oil producing city resulted in another jump in oil prices. This risks global growth. An intervention by NATO seems closer. Note that there is unrest also in Oman, Yemen and even in  Saudi Arabia. In Iran, opposition leaders are in jail, and the masses want their release..
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI as well as jobless claims are important hints towards the Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow. They are expected to be positive. See the NFP preview for details.
  • The Irish people have spoken out – the government that signed the bailout plan has been kicked out and the new government will renegotiate the bailout program. See the analysis of how the Irish elections can weaken the Euro.
  • A  bailout for Portugal is getting closer as bond yields are rising and becoming unsustainable again. They might further rise after the Irish elections. The Portuguese prime minister met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and they both seemed optimistic.

Currensee Community: 60% are long , 40% are short. These are 1469 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.