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EUR/USD is moving quickly higher and approaching a tough resistance line as the market is cheered by the bailout deal with Portugal and reflects less fear about Greece. We have quite a few market movers coming up later. Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  EUR/USD dropped to support at 1.4770 and recovered gradually
  • Current range –  1.4770 – 1.4882

EUR USD Chart May 4

  • Further levels in both directions: Below 1.4770, 1.47, 1.4650, 1.4580, 1.4520, 1.4450, 1.4375, 1.4282, 1.4160, 1.4030,
  • Above:   1.4882, 1.5020, 1.5144, 1.5250, 1.55
  • A false break above 1.4882 was very short lived. Will another attempt succeed?
  • 1.4770 has proven to be very solid as support, marking the bottom border of the range

Euro/Dollar moving up in range  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 8:00 European  Final Services PMI. Exp. 56.9 points. Actual 56.7. This is slightly disappointing and halts the rise for now.
  • 9:00 European  Retail Sales. Exp. +0.2%. Actual -1% – The Euro ignores it.
  • 11:30 US  Challenger Job Cuts.
  • 12:15 ADP Non-Farm Payrolls. Exp. +200K.
  • 14:00 US  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 57.9 points.
  • 20:00 US FOMC member Richard Fisher talks. A hawkish tone is expected.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Portugal Bailout deal closed: Portugal, the EU and the IMF have agreed on a bailout package for the debt stricken country. This includes funding of the government, and some recapitalization of the banks.
  • More hints towards NFP: The ADP Non-Farm Payrolls isn’t always a good indicator towards the official Non-Farm Payrolls, but always shakes the markets. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, also published today, is already a superb indicator. The first two signs were good –  ISM  Manufacturing  PMI came out better than expected and shows continued strong growth in this sector. Also US factory orders exceeded expectations. Both didn’t help the dollar so far.
  • Will Trichet show strong vigilance?: Yet again, the initial read of inflation exceeded expectations. Contrary to the US, European eye the headline CPI. No hike is expected next week, but it could push it forward from July to June. Today we’ll get PPI numbers. A surprising rise will fuel the Euro. See the ECB preview for more.
  • Greece cannot pay: CDS spreads and yields are lower, as the anxiety is reduced. The Portuguese deal helps Greece. But the problems in Greece haven’t gone away: the Greek government is finally admitting it can’t pay its debt and begins talking about extending the length of the loan from the EU and IMF, as a delegation comes to Greece. New signs over the weekend show that the  European Union is already working a restructuring program for Greece. The announcement can trigger contagion to other countries.
  • Bernanke declares QE2 Lite: The first ever press conference by the Fe yielded one important decision: Maturing assets will be reinvested – the central bank will continue being active, even if it won’t expand its balance sheet. This still means printing dollars, and it weakens the dollar across the board. In addition, inflation was dismissed. This theme will accompany us for a long time.

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index shows that 67% of traders are short, less thanyesterday. According to this contrarian index, this shows more gains for EUR/USD, and now less than beforehand.

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