EUR/USD Nov 12 – Lower as EuroGroup Unlikely to Approve

The EUR/USD remains under pressure and is testing the 1.27 line. Market sentiment is down as the EuroGroup is not expected to approve the next tranche of aid to Greece when it meets today in Brussels. With Greece expected to run out of funds in a matter of days, pressure is growing on Greece and its lenders to reach an agreement. German WPI disappointed,  dropping to  a four-month low. It will be a quiet day of trading, as US  markets are closed for Veterans Day.

Here’s an update about technical lines, fundamental indicators and sentiment regarding EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Technical

• Asian session: Euro/dollar consolidated around 1.2725. The pair has  edged down  in the European session.
• Current range: 1.2690 to 1.2750.

Further levels in both directions:  

• Below: 1.2690, 1.2624, 1.2590, 1.25, 1.2440, 1.2390, 1.2250, 1.2140 and 1.2042.
• Above: 1.2750, 1.28, 1.2880, 1.2960, 1.30, 1.3030, 1.3080, 1.3140, and 1.3170.
• 1.2690 is a weak line of support as the pair weakens.
• 1.2750 is the next line on the upside.

Euro/dollar  before EuroGroup meeting  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 7:00 German WPI. Exp. +0.5%. Actual- 0.6%.

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• EuroGroup unlikely to approve Greek aid: The EuroGroup meets today in Brussels, but the EZ finance ministers are not expected to approve the second installment of aid to Greece, worth 31.5 billion euros. Greece has warned that it will run out of funds by November 16, but Germany finance minister Wolgang Schauble continues to take a tough line against more aid to the country. He stated that the EuroGroup  will likely not approve more aid since it has not received a complete report from the troika  on Greece.  Schauble also said that any new aid  for Greece is contingent on the approval of the German parliament. So what happens now? The ECB  could provide some temporary aid  to prevent  a default. If that doesn’t occur, we could see Greece default in a disorderly fashion, which of course would dramatically affect the markets.  
• Greek parliament approves budget: The Greek parliament voted Sunday to approve the government’s 2013 budget. The budget contains harsh austerity measures required for Greece to receive the next tranche of aid under the bailout package. The close vote (167-128) underscores the deep opposition to the budget, which raises taxes and the retirement age, and reduces the salaries of many public workers. Some 70,000 demonstrators gathered in Athens to protest the new budget. After the vote, Greek PM Antonis Samaras declared that Greece had turned a “new page”, but with the troika still unwilling to  release more funds, Greece is not out of the woods just yet.
• More Gridlock likely in Washington: President Barack Obama was reelected to a second term as president, as he tallied  329 electoral votes and decisively defeated Republican Mitt Romney. The popular vote, however, was very close, underscoring the deep divide in the US between the two political camps. In the congressional races, the picture remained very much the same. The Democrats retained control of the Senate, while the Republicans kept their majority in the House of Representatives. This means that Congress will continue to be divided along partisan lines, and unless there is a dramatic breakthrough on Capital Hill, Obama will likely face more gridlock in his second term in office.
• Fiscal cliff crisis looming in US: The so-called fiscal cliff could occur at the end of the year, when tax breaks are set to expire at the same time that government spending cuts are scheduled to take place. Congress and President Obama will have to reach some compromise, otherwise the US could be hit with a recession in 2013. There are three choices that lawmakers can deal with the fiscal cliff, none of which are particularly palatable. We can expect some tough, protracted negotiations between the Republicans and Democrats, as lawmakers scramble to reach a compromise and find a solution to the crisis.
• Will Greece remain in the Euro-zone?: Since the debt crisis hit, this question has often been asked, but such a scenario is certainly a realistic possibility. With the huge political and economic problems that are rocking Greece, the country’s membership in the Euro-zone seems to be getting more and more tenuous. Recent EU Summits and Euro-group meetings have not led to any breakthroughs, and a bailout deal is not expected at today’s EuroGroup meeting.  Both Greece and Germany may have reached their limits, and there are several other reasons why we could see a Grexit. Time is becoming more and more critical, as Greece is likely to run out of money sometime in November without further aid. The uncertainty will likely keep up pressure on the weakening euro.
• German economy in trouble: Anyway you slice it, the numbers out of Germany are a cause for great concern. Unemployment is up, investor confidence in the German economy is down and the PMIs continue to point to ongoing economic contraction. Industrial Production recorded a 1.8% drop, its worst performance since June. The weak numbers are not just bad for the euro, but could also complicate efforts to provide aid to Greece and Spain. With a worsening economy at home, the German government will be even more reluctant to provide a helping hand to struggling EZ  members.