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EUR/USD is steady in Friday trading, as the pair continues to trade in the mid-1.34 range in the European session.  Thursday’s releases  were weak on both sides of  the Atlantic. Eurozone GDP disappointed, posting a weak gain of just 0.1% in October. In the US, Unemployment Claims came in above the estimate, and the trade deficit widened. On Friday, we’ll get a good look at inflation in the Eurozone, with the release of  CPI and Core CPI. In the US, today’s highlight is the Empire State Manufacturing Index.  

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

  • In the Asian session, EUR/USD was quiet. The pair touched a high of 1.3464 and consolidated at 1.3450. The pair is steady in the European session.
  • Current range: 1.3440 to 1.3500.

Further levels in both directions:   EUR USD Daily Forecast_Nov. 14th

  • Below: 1.3440, 1.3400, 1.3320, 1.3240, 1.3175, 1.31, 1.3050 and 1.3000, 1.2940, 1.2890 and 1.2840.
  • Above: 1.3500, 1.3570, 1.3650, 1.3710, 1.3800 and 1.3870
  • On the downside, 1.3440 remains under strong pressure. The round nunber of 1.3400 is next.
  • 1.3500 is the next line of resistance. 1.3570 follows.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 9:00 Italian Trade Balance. Exp. 1.63B.
  • 10:00 Eurozone CPI. Exp. 0.7%.
  • 10:00 Eurozone Core CPI. Exp. 0.8%.
  • All Day – ECOFIN Meetings.
  • 13:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Exp. 5.2 points.
  • 13:30 US  Import Prices.  Exp. -0.4%.
  • 14:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Exp. 78.3%.
  • 14:15 US Industrial Production. Exp. 0.1%.
  • 15:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Exp. 0.5%.

*All times are GMT

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Unemployment claims miss estimate: Unemployment Claims have been fairly steady over the past few weeks, but with speculation increasing about a possible December taper by the Federal Reserve, every employment release is under the market’s microscope. The indicator showed little change with a reading of 339 thousand, but this was above the estimate of 331 thousand. There wasn’t any relief from Thursday’s other key release, Trade Balance. The October deficit widened to -$41.8 billion, compared to -$38.8 billion in September. This was well above the estimate of -$38.7 billion.
  • More of the same from Yellen?: Incoming Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen  testified before the powerful Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.  Yellen is a strong supporter of QE, and told the committee that the present level of asset purchases should continue until growth improves and unemployment falls. She said that the labor market and economy  are  performing “far short of their potential”, but added that she expects inflation to remain below the Fed’s target of 2%. Yellen, who will become the first woman to head the Federal Reserve, takes over from Bernard Bernanke in January.
  • Eurozone GDP releases disappoint: Eurozone GDP releases point to continuing weak growth in the region. Eurozone Flash GDP gained just 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. French and Italian Preliminary GDP both declined by 0.1%, missing their estimates. German Preliminary GDP matched the forecast of 0.3%, but this figure was sharply lower than the September reading, which posted a gain of 0.7%. The ECB lowered interest rates last week in an attempt to improve economic growth, and we’ll have to wait and see if next month’s GDP numbers respond positively to the rate cut.
  • Eurozone manufacturing data declines: Weak economic growth in the Eurozone was one of the factors that precipitated the ECB’s rate cut last week. The manufacturing sector is one of the sore spots in the economy, as underscored by a weak Eurozone Industrial Production release on Wednesday. The important indicator declined 0.5%, short of the estimate of -0.2%. It was the second decline in the past three readings. Earlier this week, Italian Industrial Production posted a weak gain of 0.2%, matching the estimate. If Eurozone releases continue to point to sluggish growth, we can expect the euro to remain under strong pressure from the US dollar.
  • Greece and troika spar over Greek budget: Greece has imposed sharp austerity measures to get its fiscal house in order, but stumbling blocks remain on the bumpy road to economic recovery. The troika has promised Greece another installment of aid worth 1 billion euros, but wants to see the country plug a 2 billion euro hole in its 2014 budget. The Greek government has rejected tax hikes or cuts in wages or pensions, which will make it difficult to eliminate this deficit. The troika has already provided Greece with some 240 billion euros in aid since 2010 and is insisting that the government stay within its 2014 budget, and has threatened to suspend the next installment until Athens takes further steps to keep costs under control. The tug-of-war between the sides will likely continue for some time.