EUR/USD Nov. 18 – On the Road to Recovery

EUR/USD manged to recover as hopes for a resolution in Ireland begin to take shape. Will the Euro reconquer important lines it lost, or is it just a retracement before another drop? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

Euro/Dollar above 1.35

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  EUR/USD got further away from 1.3530.
• Current Range between 1.3530 to 1.3640
• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.3530, 1.3430, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3114 and 1.2920.  Above  1.3640, 1.37, 1.3830,  1.3950, 1.4030, 1.4030, 1.4160, and 1.4217.
• 1.3334 significant lower point – this was an important peak in August, after which the Euro made a big decline. A struggle will probably be seen here.
• 1.3830 significant higher point. Will the Euro rise towards this line and reconquer it?

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

• 9:00 European Current Account. Exp. -2.2 billion.
• 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 442K.
• 13:30 ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet talks.
• 15:00 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Exp. +5.1 points.
• 15:00 US CB Leading Index. Exp. +0.5%.
• 15:00 US Mortgage Delinquencies.
• 17:00 US FOMC member Kevin Warsh talks.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Ireland bailout terms discussed in depth. While Ireland still has cash for some time, the EU wants to prevent the contagion scenario, in which big economies such as Spain and Italy cannot raise money.
• A drop under 430K in US jobless will be a good sign and will boost the dollar back.
• Currensee Community: 52% are long, 48% are short, up from 51:49 yesterday. These are 1237open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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