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Euro dollar  is trading in a narrow range under important resistance, which it is trying to break, but very cautiously. The confidence vote in Greece and the Non-Farm Payrolls are awaited and will provide a strong ending to a very tense week. Will the pair manage to recover? Or is a downfall coming?

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session: Very quiet session sees the pair constrained under 1.3838.
  • Current range: 1.38 to 1.3838.EUR USD Chart November 4 2011
  • Further levels in both directions: Below   1.38, 1.3725, 1.3650, 1.36, 1.3550, 1.35, 1.3450, 1.3360, 1.3250.
  • Above:   1.38, 1.3838, 1.39, 1.3950, 1.4050, 1.4130, 1.42, 1.4250, 1.4282.
  • 1.3650 is the clear bottom of the current range
  • Strong resistance is close, at 1.3838. The pair attempted to break above this line, but failed.

Euro/Dollar in tight range  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 9:00 Euro-zone  Final Services PMI. Exp. 47.2. Actual 46.4. Another sign of weakness.
  • 10:00 Euro-zone PPI. Exp. +0.3%.
  • 11:00 German Factory Orders. Exp. +0.1%.
  • 12:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls. Exp. +100K. The result could be better. See the Non-Farm Payrolls preview.
  • 12:30 US Unemployment Rate. Exp. 9.1%.
  • 12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Exp. +0.2%.
  • 17:00 US FOMC member Daniel Tarullo speaks.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Greek confidence vote awaited: The political turmoil in Greece reached new heights yesterday, with the ruling party revolting against the prime minister and the opposition willing to accept the bailout program for a change. It seems like a brilliant political maneuver by Papandreou, but this maneuver might send him to quick retirement as well. One thing looks more certain: the referendum is off, and this is positive for the euro.
  • Good Non-Farm Payrolls?: The monthly circus is with us once again. Recent indicators, including the important employment component in the services PMI, point to a nice gain in jobs. The publication will have a limited attention span this time, as Athens is i the limelight, but it does have long term implications on the euro.
  • Draghi cuts the rates: The new president of the ECB oversaw a unanimous decision to cut the rates in the euro-zone to 1.25%. He seems less stubborn and more practical than his  predecessor  Trichet. Draghi also acknowledged the weak economic situation, said that forecasts will probably be downgraded and spoke about a mild recession. While the initial reaction was negative, the move to cut the rates is positive for the economies of the euro-zone. Will he be practical and launch a full scale QE program as well?
  • G-20 Summit continues- Berslusconi doesn’t bring any news: Italy was pressured to make new reforms, regarding pensions and other issues. Italy’s PM didn’t succeed in getting an agreement within parliament. There is an idea that an IMF mission will be placed in Rome. Global leaders are acknowledging that Italy needs to be stabilized. This is a beginning of a shift from Greece.
  • Bernanke doesn’t provide news: While the Fed is ready to act, Bernanke also said that the Fed has already done a lot and has been very aggressive. For a change, there has been one dovish dissenter from the decision. This helped the dollar improve positions, and the certainty of the Greek referendum pushed it even higher.
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