EUR/USD Nov. 5 – Dipping Before Non-Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD continued advancing, many hours after QE2 was announced, but is retreating towards the NFP. Will it close the week on higher ground, or will the Non-Farm Payrolls supply relief and keep the pair under resistance? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD marching forward. * Post updated 11:30 GMT.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  EUR/USD traded in a narrow range between 1.4180 to 1.4230.
• Current Range between 1.4180 to 1.4150.
• Further levels in both directions: Below, 1.4080, 1.4030, 1.3950, 1.3830, 1.37, and 1.3637.  Above  1.4150, 1.4217, 1.4280, 1.4450 and 1.4580.
• 1.4217 pivotal point in the aftermath of QE2.
• 1.4030 provides strong strong support.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

• 11:00 German Factory Orders. Exp. +0.5%. Actual -4% – bad for the Euro.
• 12:30. US Non Farm Payrolls. +50K expected. Unemployment rate to remain at 9.6%.
• 13:30 US FOMC member Thomas Hoeing talks. He voted against QE2.
• 14:00 US Pending Home Sales. Exp. +3.2%.
• 17:20 US FOMC member James Bullard talks.
• 18:00 US FOMC chairman Ben Bernanke talks.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• QE2 in the US was announced and hurt the dollar across the board. The echoes will continue to be heard also today, and for many days. Profit taking could occur.
• Irish debt issues are becoming a problem once again. This could erupt as a full-blown crisis.
• Non-Farm Payrolls big event for today. A positive number could supply relief for the dollar. Note that high volatility is expected around the event.
• Currensee Community: 55% are short, 45% are long. These are 1106 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment. Is the community seeing the dollar escape the bearish trend with QE2?

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