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EUR/USD  is down to new lows, trading around 1.24 after already falling even lower. The euro was hit hard by Mario Draghi, which had a determined dovish message, defying the discontent and committing to expand the ECB’s balance sheet by a large scale. The focus now shifts to the US with the “king of forex trading”: Non-Farm Payrolls. Expectations are high and also is the dollar. Can the pair fall even lower or will any minor disappointment allow for a recovery?

Update:  Non-Farm Payrolls only 214K but unemployment rate 5.8% + good internals – dollar up

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.

  • Asian session: The pair managed to climb from support at 1.2360 towards 1.24, but still down..
  • Current range:  1.2360 to 1.2440.

Further levels in both directions:

EURUSD November 7 2014 euro dollar analysis after Draghi defies discontent ahead of NFP

  • Below:  1.2360, 1.2250, 1.2140, 1.2042.
  • Above: 1.2440, 1.25, 1.2570, 1.2620 and 1.2660
  • 1.2440 is an old line  and now switches to resistance.
  • 1.2360 is key support.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00  German Industrial Production. Exp. 2.1%, actual 1.4%, but with an upwards revision.
  • 7:00 German trade balance. Exp. 18.3 billion, actual 1.8.5 billion.
  • 7:45 French industrial output. Exp. -0.1%, actual 0%.
  • 7:45 French trade balance. Exp. -5.2, actual 4.7 billion.
  • 13:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls. Exp. +235K. See how to trade the NFP with EURUSD.
  • 13:30 US unemployment rate. Exp. 5.9%.
  • 13:30 US Average hourly earnings. Exp. +0.2% m/m, 2% y/y.
  • 13:30 US participation rate. Last: 62.7%.
  • 15:15 Fed Chair Janet Yellen talks
  • 19:00 US Consumer Credit. Exp. 16.6 billion.
  • 19:30 US FOMC member Daniel Tarullo talks.

* All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar  forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

In our latest podcast, we preview the NFP, run down the ECB, talk about the huge Japanese move, preview the UK and also talk about Brazil:

Download it directly here.

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