Euro dollar continues enjoying the promise to “get serious” about the crisis from Merkel and Sarkozy and is sitting comfortably in high range. When will the market demand details? The Slovak parliament might approve the EFSF powers today, providing more back wind for the common currency as North America returns from the short holiday.
Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.
- Asian session: A quiet session saw the pair trading in a narrow range around 1.3630.
- Current range: 1.3630 to 1.37.
- Further levels in both directions: Below 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.35, 1.34, 1.3360, 1.3285, 1.3225, 1.3145,
- Above: 1.37, 1.3750, 1.38, 1.3838, 1.3950, 1.4030.
- 1.37 is the more important resistance line and it resisted the first challenge.
- There is lots of room for downside consolidation now.
Euro/Dollar in rising channel – click on the graph to enlarge.
- 7:30 ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet testifies in the European parliament.
- 14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Exp.43.2 points.
* All times are GMT.
For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast
- EU Awaits Slovakia: Slovakia still needs to approve the EFSF powers agreed on July 21. One of the coalition partners still refuses to vote in favor, but negotiations are going on, and the general assumption is that this will eventually be resolved. The vote could happen today.
- Market returning to full activity: Holidays in Japan, Canada and the US didn’t prevent the euro to surge on Monday, and now everybody is back. Will it cause a freeze or more action? The calendar is still light in economic indicators.
- Merkel and Sarkozy promise something: While no concrete details were released, the leaders of Germany and France decided on Sunday to get the banks in order and also find some more comprehensive solution for Greece. Both countries were reportedly at odds about the way banks should be recapitalized. There are talks of a very unsurprising due date: the first week of November. This fits perfectly well with The Plan.
- Greece going to get aid soon?: An announcement about a successful conclusion of talks between the troika and the ECB will likely be announced soon.
- Italy and Spain downgraded: The upwards move of the euro now comes on the back of a downfall on Friday, when Fitch downgraded both countries.
- Non-Farm Payrolls surprise: Finally some good news from the US: 103K jobs were gained and the previous month’s flat number was revised to the upside. This helped the relief rally.