EUR/USD is almost unchanged as we start the new trading week, with the pair trading close to the 1.3550 line in Monday’s European session. Negotiations on the weekend failed to reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, which could lead to a US sovereign debt default. In economic news, today’s only release is European Industrial Production. The important manufacturing event looked solid, posting a gain of 1.0%. As well, the Eurogroup finance ministers meet in Brussels. There are no US releases on Monday, as the markets are closed for Columbus Day.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
EUR/USD Technical
- In the Asian session, EUR/USD was generally steady, touching a high of 1.3569. The pair has edged lower in the European session.
- Current range: 1.3500 to 1.3570.
Further levels in both directions: 
- Below: 1.3500, 1.3460, 1.3415, 1.3325, 1.3240, 1.3175, 1.31, 1.3050 and 1.3000.
- Above: 1.3570, 1.3650, 1.3710, 1.3800, 1.3870, 1.3940 and 1.40.
- 1.3500 continues to provide support. 1.3460 follows.
- 1.3570 is a weak next resistance line. 1.3650 is stronger.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 5:00 Eurozone Industrial Production. Exp. 0.8%, Actual 1.0%.
- All Day – Eurogroup Meetings.
* All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- No breakthrough over debt ceiling: Negotiations continued on the weekend between the Republican and Democrat Senate leaders, but they failed to reach on agreement on the debt ceiling, which will hit on Thursday. The budget impasse also continues, as the government shutdown heads towards its third week. A bipartisan proposal has been floated which would fund the government for six months and raise the debt limit until January 31. In the meantime, the deadlock on Capitol Hill continues, and it’s hard to see how the markets can remain calm in this crisis-filled atmosphere.
- Economic Leaders weigh in on debt ceiling: The US debt ceiling crisis could affect the world economy, as it could result in the US defaulting on its financial obligations. This has understandably resulted in great concern outside the US. The IMF has warned that the continuing uncertainty emanating out of Washington could lead to a world recession. ECB President Mario Draghi has also weighed in, saying that it was “unthinkable” that Congress would not reach an agreement on the debt ceiling.
- FOMC minutes point to QE tapering: Overshadowed by the crisis in Washington was last week’s releases of the minutes of the September Fed policy meeting. At that meeting, the Fed surprised the markets by not reducing its bond-purchasing program, which currently runs at $85 billion/mth. The minutes stated that the decision not to begin tapering was a “close call”. This has raised speculation that we could see tapering before the end of the year. However, the monkey wrench in all this is the fiscal uncertainty from shutdown and looming debt crisis. As well, the Fed is heavily dependent on key releases such as Non-Farm Payrolls, which have been suspended to the shutdown. So it’s unlikely that we’ll see any moves to reduce QE prior to December.
- US Unemployment Claims Soar, but dollar unmoved: Weekly jobless claims jumped last week, hitting 374 thousand, way above the estimate of 307 thousand. However, this could be a one-time aberration, in part due to technical issues in California. In the end, this critical release hasn’t helped us gauge the health of the labor market. Non-Farm Payrolls, another vital employment release, is suspended while the shutdown continues. The markets expect Unemployment Claims to be more in line with recent releases, which have been around 310 thousand.
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