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EUR/USD started the week with another rise above 1.40, enjoying dollar weakness after the G-20 meetings. Will it manage to settle higher this time?  Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

euro to dollar october 25

EUR/USD above 1.40 once again.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  EUR/USD jumped higher and climbed above 1.40. It later lost strength.
  • Current Range between 1.4030 to 1.4160.
  • Further levels in both direcstions: Below,   1.3950, 1.3830, 1.3775, 1.3637, 1.3530, 1.3430 and 1.3333.  Above  1.42, 1.4450 and 1.4580.
  • 1.4030 proved to be a strong line in the past, but EUR/USD couldn’t hold on to it.
  • 1.3830 is the key on the bottom.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

  • 9:00 Industrial New Orders. Exp. +2.1%.
  • 12:30 US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke talks. High volatility expected.
  • 14:00 US Existing Home Sales. Exp. 4.29 million.
  • 20:30 US FOMC member William Dudley talks.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • G-20 reached a vague agreement about not intervening in currency markets. This currently weakens the dollar across the board, but the Aussie and the yen gain more than the Euro and the Pound.
  • Debt issues never went away, but the market disregards them. Maybe they will get more attention, especially with budgets in Ireland and Portugal.
  • The inevitable second round of quantitative easing in the US still weighs on weakens the dollar, but the size of QE depends on the current situation and especially on jobs which disappointed on Friday. QE2 now looks imminent, but also fully priced in the dollar’s weakness – comments regarding the size will have a strong impact on EUR/USD.
  • Currensee Community: 52% are short, 48% are long. Last week, there were more longs. These are 1064 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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