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EUR/USD fell off the 1.40 wagon once again, stuck in a frustrating range. Will it chose a direction today?  Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

eur to usd october 26 2010

EUR/USD above 1.40 once again.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  EUR/USD played around 1.3950 during this session.
  • Current Range between 1.3950 to 1.4030.
  • Further levels in both direcstions: Below,   1.3950, 1.3830, 1.3775, 1.3637, 1.3530, 1.3430 and 1.3333.  Above  1.4030, 1.4217, 1.4450 and 1.4580.
  • 1.4030 proved to be a strong line in the past, but EUR/USD couldn’t hold on to it.
  • 1.3830 is the key on the bottom.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

  • 6:00 German Consumer Climate. Exp. 5.2. Actual 4.9. Small disappointment.
  • 13:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Exp. +2.4%.
  • 14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Exp. 49.3  points.
  • 14:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Exp. -1.
  • 17:00 ECB member Axel Weber talks. He shook the Euro in previous speeches.
  • 20:30 US FOMC member William Dudley speaks.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Debt issues never went away, but the market disregards them. Maybe they will get more attention, especially with budgets in Ireland and Portugal.
  • The inevitable second round of quantitative easing in the US still weighs on weakens the dollar, but the size of QE also depends on economic indicators released this week. QE2 now looks imminent, but also fully priced in the dollar’s weakness – comments regarding the size will have a strong impact on EUR/USD.
  • Currensee Community: 52% are short, 48% are long. Last week, there were more longs. These are 1116 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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