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Euro dollar  is settling in a high range after the huge post summit rally. It’s off the peak but remains very higher towards the week’s end. The calendar is relatively light, so more details about the China’s participation and other summit details will continue influencing the pair. Will we see another rally before the week ends?

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session: Quiet trading followed the huge rally, with the pair redefining its range.
  • Current range: 1.4150 to 1.42.EUR USD Chart October 28 2011
  • Further levels in both directions: Below  1.4150, 1.41, 1.4030, 1.3950, 1.39, 1.3838,
  • Above:    1.42, 1.4250, 1.4282. 1.4325, 1.4375, 1.4450.
  • 1.4250 is the peak of the rally so far, and it’s closely followed by last November’s 1.4282 peak.
  • 1.4030 is a significant bottom.

Euro/Dollar on the move higher  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 6:45  French Consumer Spending. Exp. +0.1%. Actual -0.5%.
  • 12:30 US  Core PCE Price Index. Exp. +0.1%.
  • 12:30 US Employment Cost Index. Exp. +0.6%.
  • 12:30 US  Personal Spending. Exp. +0.6%.
  • 12:30 US  Personal Income. Exp. +0.4%.
  • 13:55 US Revised Consumer Sentiment. Exp. 58.1 points.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • EU Summit Deal: In the late hours of the night (or early morning), the leaders finally cut a deal. It includes a 50% haircut on Greek debt for private bondholders (“voluntary”, reached with the banks), about 1 trillion euros of an enhanced bailout fund and around 106 billion of bank recapitalization. The last two numbers may not be sufficient, and caused the hesitation, despite the progress on all three fronts. See the analysis of the EU Summit.
  • Chinese participation in the EFSF: Perhaps this time China is serious. Up to now, Chinese statements regarding its support for Europe were only declarative. It seems that they are willing to invest around 100 billion euros in the European bailout fund – something that will definitely help.
  • German hurdle?: The constitutional court gave a temporary suspension to the “fast lane” of approving EFSF matters through a small committee, and ruled that such decisions should go through the full session of the parliament.
  • US Situation Improving: The first read of GDP for the third quarter of 2011 came out at 2.5%. This was within expectations but much better than the previous quarters. This sparked the stronger risk rally that helped the euro. Today we have second tier figures.
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