EUR/USD is under pressure after hopes for announcement of a deal between Greece and the troika were dashed. There were reports last week that an agreement had been hammered out, which would have allowed Greece to receive the next installment of aid. However, no agreement has yet been finalized, as the impasse looks likely to continue into November. After some disappointing releases out of Germany, the markets will be watching German Preliminary CPI, which will be released throughout the day.
Here’s an update about technical lines, fundamental indicators and sentiment regarding EUR/USD.
- Asian session: Euro/dollar edged downwards. In the European session, the pair continues to test 1.29.
- Current range: 1.29 to 1.2960.
- Below: 1.29, 1.2814, 1.2750, 1.2670, 1.2624 and 1.2587.
- Above: 1.2960, 1.30, 1.3060, 1.3105, 1.3170, 1.3290, 1.34, 1.3437 and 1.3480.
- 1.2960 is providing resistance. 1.30 is the next line on the upside.
- 1.29 is being tested. 1.2814 is the next support line.
Euro/dollar lower over Greek uncertainty- click on the graph to enlarge.
- All Day: German Preliminary CPI. Exp. 0.0%.
- 12:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Exp.+0.1%.
- 12:30 US Personal Spending. Exp.+0.6%.
- 12:30 US Personal Income. Exp. +0.5%.
- Greece, troika fail to reach deal: There is disappointment and frustration in the markets as reports over a deal between Greece and its international lenders were incorrect. It is clear that Greece will miss it debt to GDP target of 125% by 2020, and the second installment of aid is being held up. So what happens now? There are several scenarios that could play themselves out, including a “haircut” for Greece’s lenders, or further austerity measures by the Greek government. However, there is strong opposition within Greece to further cost-cutting measures, and we could see an ugly showdown between Greece and the troika if matters are not resolved soon.
- Fed cautiously optimistic over US economy: Analysts were closely watching last week’s Federal Reserve Policy Meeting, which was the first since the Fed implemented its Q3 stimulus program. The Fed report was generally positive, stating that the economy is improving slowly, but also noting that job growth remains slow and high unemployment rate remains a concern. Operation Twist will continue until the end of 2012 and the QE3 continues at the pace of $40 billion per month. As expected, there was no change to the Federal Funds Rate of 0%-025%, and the Fed expects to maintain this level to 2015.
- Weak German releases continue: The markets were hit with disappointing PMI numbers out of Germany indicating weakness in the manufacturing and services sectors. Adding to the bad news, the German Ifo Business Climate dropped to its lowest level since March 2010. The weak German numbers are likely to exacerbate market jitters over the health of the German economy, and with mounting financial problems at home, the German government will be less than enthusiastic about coughing up more funds for Greece and Spain.
- Spain hit by downgrades, record unemployment: Spain’s economic woes continue, as Moody’s downgraded Catalonia and four other regions. Moody’s cited poor liquidity and the huge debt problems that these regions are facing. The downgrade is another headache for the Spanish central government. As expected, the unemployment rate hit another record, rising slightly to a whopping 25%. Analysts say the numbers could get even worse, as the government implements further austerity measures.
- US braces for Hurricane Sandy: A mega-storm is expected to hit the east coast of the United States tonite, and the storm could affect up to 50 million people. The currency markets are expected to remain open, although the equity markets will be closed today and Tuesday. Traders can expect an abbreviated trading day due to the weather emergency.