EUR/USD Oct. 31 – Rising as US Struggles with Sandy

EUR/USD is moving upwards, as the US struggles to recover following the devastation and misery caused by Hurricane Sandy, which slammed the US northeast coast earlier this week.  The weather may be better in Europe, but the markets are anything but calm as the crises in Greece and Spain continue. Euro-zone finance ministers will hold a conference call later today to discuss Greece’s progress under its austerity program, but the markets aren’t expecting any decisions on further bailout aid to Greece.  In economic news, German Retail Sales looked very sharp,   but  the Euro-zone Unemployment Rate crept up to 11.6%, another record high.  In New York, the equity markets are expected to open for the first time this week, after trading ground to a halt due to Hurricane Sandy.

Here’s an update about technical lines, fundamental indicators and sentiment regarding EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Technical

• Asian session: Euro/dollar traded around 1.2960. In the European session, the pair has moved higher.
• Current range: 1.30 to 1.3060.

Further levels in both directions:    

• Below: 1.30, 1.2960, 1.29, 1.2814, 1.2750 and  1.2670.
• Above: 1.3030, 1.3075, 1.3105, 1.3170, 1.3290 and 1.34.
• EUR/USD is improving and testing  1.30.  1.3030 is next on the upside.
• 1.2960 is providing support. 1.29 is stronger.

Euro/dollar higher after Sandy- click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 7:00 German Retail Sales. Exp. +0.4%. Actual +1.5%.
• 7:45  French Consumer Spending. Exp. +02%. Actual +0.1%.
• 9:00  Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate. Exp. 10.8%. Actual 10.8%.
• All Day: Eurogroup Meetings.
• 10:00 Euro-zone CPI Flash Estimate. Exp. +2.5%. Actual +2.5%.
• 10:00 Euro-zone Unemployment Rate. Exp. 11.5%. Actual 11.6%.
• 10:00 Italian Preliminary CPI. Exp. +0.2%.
• Tentative: German 30-year Bond Auction.
• Tentative:  French 10-year Bond Auction.
• 12:30 US Employment Cost Index. Exp. +0.5%.
• 1:45 US Chicago PMI. Exp. 51.0 points.
• 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. 1.6M.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Hurricane Sandy slams East coast: Rescue and recovery efforts  continue  as the US tries to steady itself after Hurricane Sandy slammed the US northeast on Monday. Sandy is possibly the worst storm to ever hit the US, and has caused enormous damage. At least 50 lives have been lost, damage  is estimated at $30 billion so far, and millions of people remain without power. New York City was hit hard, and large parts of the city remain paralyzed, as the transit system and major tunnels remain closed. The city is slowly getting   back on its feet, as  the international  airports and the stock exchanges will reopen today.
• Lot of rumors, little progress over Greek bailout: Reports continue to surface about a deal between Greece and the troika, which would allow the second installment of aid to flow to Greece. The latest rumor is that the finance ministers will approve extending the primary surplus targets by two years. However, this isn’t the first report of a breakthrough, and there are several reasons why traders should remain skeptical. So what happens now?  There are plenty of  ideas floating around,  including a “haircut” for Greece’s lenders, or further austerity measures by the Greek government. However, there is strong opposition within Greece to further cost-cutting measures, and we could see an ugly showdown between Greece and the troika if matters are not resolved soon. Meanwhile, the Greek coalition government is split on whether to accept the troika demands,  and the government has delayed the vote on new austerity measures by another week.
• Spain  remains mum  on bailout: Spain is in the grips of a recession, and the economy shows no sign of improving in the near future. Unemployment rate hit another record, rising slightly to 25%. Flash GDP declined for the fourth straight quarter, dropping by 0.3% in Q3. Yet, despite the worsening economy, PM Mariano Rajoy appears in no rush to ask for an aid package, stating that he would request a bailout “when I think it is in the interests of Spain”. The continuing uncertainty promises to keep Spain in the headlines, sour market sentiment and put pressure on the eur
• German economy weakening: German data continues to look sluggish. Last week, the markets were greeted with disappointing PMI manufacturing and services and the Ifo Business Climate dropped to its lowest level since March 2010. The news was no better on the employment front. German Unemployment Claims jumped to their highest level in over three years, and the unemployment  rate remained stuck at  6.9%.  The weak German numbers are likely to exacerbate market jitters over the health of the German economy. With mounting economic problems at home, the German government will be in no mood to cough up more funds for Greece and Spain.
• Italy’s Bond Auction Successful: The markets were pleased with the Italian 10-year Bond Auction, which dropped to an average yield of 4.92%. This was a drop from the previous auction, with a yield of 5.24%,  and the lowest level in 17 months. The positive economic news comes at at delicate time for the Italian government, as former PM Silvio Berlusconi, who heads the largest party in parliament,  has accused the government of leading Italy into recession. If Berlusconi ends his support for the government,  Italy could face  early elections.