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EUR/USD started the week by consolidating under 1.40, drifting again towards uptrend support. Will it dip under the line on this quiet day? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.
EUR USD Forecast October 11

EUR/USD below 1.40

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  After starting higher on a weekend gap, EUR/USD slipped to around 1.3950.
  • Current Range between 1.3850 to 1.3950.
  • Further levels in both direcstions: Below,  1.3850, 1.38, 1.3717, 1.3650, 1.3560, 1.35, 1.3430.  Above   1.40 1.42 and 1.4450.
  • Wide uptrend channel getting close again: Uptrend resistance began on Sep. 8 and uptrend support on Sep. 13. Trading is characterized with many hours of consolidation, followed by  few hours of sharp rises. Note that the uptrend support line was slightly modified.
  • The channel will reach the current levels tomorrow at 9:00 GMT.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

  • 6:45 French Industrial Production. Exp. +0.3%. Actual 0%.
  • 17:30 ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet speaks.
  • 18:45 US FOMC member Janet Yellen speaks.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Debt issues never went away, but the market disregards them. This could change this week, but in the meantime, the downgrade of Ireland hurt the Euro only for a short time.
  • The inevitable second round of quantitative easing in the US still weighs on weakens the dollar, but the size of QE depends on the current situation and especially on jobs which disappointed on Friday.
  • Short positions on the dollar have reached an extreme of 30 billion. In such extreme levels, the question that arises – if everybody’s short, who’s left to sell? We might see a reversal in the dollar.
  • Today is Columbus Day in the US – apart from a sparse calendar, we have thinner volume.
  • The uptrend channel should be closely watched.
  • Currensee Community: 52% are long, 48% are short. These are 1084 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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