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EUR/USD is consolidating above important support. The week ends with Ben Bernanke and many important releases, promising an exciting close to the week. Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

eur usd forecast October 15

EUR/USD consolidating above 1.4030. Click to enlarge.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  EUR/USD fell towards the 1.4030 support line and bounced back higher.
  • Current Range between 1.4030 and 1.4122
  • Further levels in both direcstions: Below,  1.40, 1.3950, 1.3850, 1.38, 1.3717, and 1.3637.  Above   1.4120, 1.42, 1.4450 and 1.4580.
  • Uptrend support lost again, becoming less important: Uptrend resistance began on Sep. 8 and uptrend support on Sep. 13. Trading is characterized with many hours of consolidation, followed by  few hours of sharp rises. Note that the uptrend support line was slightly modified. Support was lost, reconquered, and lost again. Support and resistance lines are more important.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

  • 9:00 CPI. Exp. 1.8%. Core CPI 1%.
  • 9:00 Trade Balance. Exp. +1.3 billion.
  • 12:15 US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke talks.
  • 12:30 US Retail Sales. Exp. +0.5%. Core sales +0.4%
  • 12:30 US CPI. Exp. +0.2%. Core CPI +0.1%.
  • 12:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Exp. 7.1 points.
  • 13:55 US Consumer Sentiment. Exp. 68.8 points.
  • 14:00 US Business Inventories. Exp. +0.5%.
  • 18:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Exp. -32 billion.
  • 20:00 US Treasury Currency Report.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Debt issues never went away, but the market disregards them. Only very bad news could stop the Euro.
  • The inevitable second round of quantitative easing in the US still weighs on weakens the dollar, but the size of QE depends on the current situation and especially on jobs which disappointed on Friday. QE2 now looks imminent after the meeting minutes.
  • 1.4030 is a key level on the downside.
  • 1.4217 is the next level to watch.
  • Currensee Community: 50% are long, 50% are short. These are 1097 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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