EUR/USD October 21 – Above 1.40 Once Again

EUR/USD made a breakout above 1.40, and is now struggling with resistance. Will it push higher on this busy day? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD jumps above 1.40.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  EUR/USD dropped under 1.3950 and reached 1.3875 before recovering. European session saw the jump..
• Current Range between 1.3950 and 1.4030.
• Further levels in both direcstions: Below,  1.3950, 1.3830, 1.3775, 1.3637, 1.3530, 1.3430 and 1.3333.  Above   1.4030, 1.4120, 1.42, 1.4450 and 1.4580.
• 1.4030 proved to be a strong line in the past.
• 1.3830 is the key on the bottom.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

• 7:00 French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 55.6. Actual 55.2.
• 7:00 French Flash Services PMI. Exp. 57.5. Actual 55.3. Significant disappointment.
• 7:30 German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 54.6. Actual 56.1. Significant surprise.
• 7:30 German Flash Services PMI. Exp. 55. Actual 56.6. Significant surprise.
• 8:00 All-European Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.2. Actual 54.1.
• 8:00 All-European Flash Services PMI. Exp. 53.8. Actual 53.2.
• 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 454K.
• 14:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Exp. +2.3 points.
• 14:00 US CB Leading Index. Exp. +0.4%.
• 14:00 European Consumer Confidence.
• 18:00 US FOMC member James Bullard speaks.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Debt issues never went away, but the market disregards them. Maybe they will get more attention, especially with budgets in Ireland and Portugal.
• The inevitable second round of quantitative easing in the US still weighs on weakens the dollar, but the size of QE depends on the current situation and especially on jobs which disappointed on Friday. QE2 now looks imminent, but also fully priced in the dollar’s weakness – comments regarding the size will have a strong impact on EUR/USD.
• Currensee Community: 53% are long, 47% are short, down from 54:46 yesterday. These are 1094open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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