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EUR/USD bounced off the uptrend support line after flirting with it. Will fresh Irish troubles send it lower, or will it jump higher? Here’s a quick update on fundamentals, technicals, and community trends.

eur usd forecast October 5

EUR/USD flirting with uptrend support

* This post was last updated at 1:45 GMT.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  EUR/USD dropped to 1.3650 during a not-so-quiet session, and recovered afterwards.
  • Current Range between 1.37 to 1.38.
  • Further levels in both direcstions: Below,  1.3650, 1.3560, 1.35, 1.3430, 1.3365, 1.3267, 1.3160, and 1.3110.  Above  1.38, 1.3850, 1.40 1.42 and 1.4450.
  • Wide uptrend channel now endangered: Uptrend resistance began on Sep. 8 and uptrend support on Sep. 13. Trading is characterized with many hours of consolidation, followed by  few hours of sharp rises.  EUR/USD slipped below uptrend support, but this was only a false break.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

  • 8:00 Final Services PMI. Exp. 53.6 points. Actual 54.1.
  • 9:00 Retail Sales. Exp. + 0.2%. Actual -0.4%.
  • 14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 52.1 points.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Moody’s put Ireland on watch towards yet another downgrade. This comes despite the big moves by the Irish last week.
  • Debt issues never went away, but the market disregards them. This could change this week.
  • The inevitable second round of quantitative easing in the US still weighs on weakens the dollar, but the size of QE depends on the current situation and especially on jobs.
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is an important hint for the Non-Farm Payrolls.
  • The uptrend channel should be closely watched.
  • Currensee Community: 53% are long, 47% are short. These are 1088 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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