EUR/USD October 7 – Bounces Off 1.40

EUR/USD eyes 1.40

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  very quiet session, with EUR/USD trading under 1.3950.
• Current Range between 1.3850 to 1.3950
• Further levels in both direcstions: Below,  1.3850, 1.38, 1.37, 1.3650, 1.3560, 1.35, 1.3430.  Above   1.40 1.42 and 1.4450.
• Wide uptrend channel far again: Uptrend resistance began on Sep. 8 and uptrend support on Sep. 13. Trading is characterized with many hours of consolidation, followed by  few hours of sharp rises.  EUR/USD slipped below uptrend support yesterday, but this was only a false break.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

• 10:00 German Industrial Production. Exp. 0.4%.
• 11:45 Rate decision. Exp. unchanged at 1%.
• 12:30 ECB Press Conference.
• 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. 454K – last NFP hint.
• 17:30 US FOMC member Thomas Hoenig talks. He’s a hawk.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Debt issues never went away, but the market disregards them. This could change this week, but in the meantime, the downgrade of Ireland hurt the Euro only for a short time.
• The inevitable second round of quantitative easing in the US still weighs on weakens the dollar, but the size of QE depends on the current situation and especially on jobs. We get hints on jobs and QE today.
• Weekly jobless claims supply the last hint before the Non-Farm Payrolls. Choppy trading expected.
• The uptrend channel should be closely watched.
• Currensee Community: 51% are long, 49% are short, slightly down from 52:48 yesterday. These are 1071 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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