The Euro saw another week of shaking between hope and despair. In the week moving towards Christmas, we still have quite a few indicators. Here’s an outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
A break higher by the Euro early in the week was met with higher US yields that took it down. Also the EU summit didn’t help. Will low trade volume trigger erratic moves now?
EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- German PPI: Monday, 7:00. Producer prices have risen gradually in the past two months. Europe’s powerhouse saw a rise of 0.4% last month. A slower rise in prices is likely to be seen now.
- Current Account: Monday, 9:00. Contrary to the trade balance figure, the current account, including also services and cash in addition to goods, is in a deficit. Last month saw a disappointing deficit – 13.1 billion. A correction is expected this time, with a small deficit.
- Consumer Confidence: Monday, 15:00. This survey of 2300 consumers is an official figure from Eurostat. It’s been in the negative zone for a long time, meaning pessimism. The score of -10 seen last month will probably prevail for another month.
- German GfK Consumer Climate: Tuesday, 7:00. Europe’s largest economy saw a surprising rise in confidence last month. 2000 consumers have pushed the score to 5.5 points, continuing a steady rise seen for many months. Another small rise is predicted now.
- NBB Business Climate: Wednesday, 14:00. Despite coming from a small country, Belgium, this wide survey of 6000 businesses always moves the Euro. Last month was great, with a rise above 0 – meaning improving conditions after a long time of deteriorating conditions. The score is expected to remain at positive ground, rising slightly higher than 0.8 points.
- French Consumer Spending: Thursday, 7:45. Europe’s second largest economy sees high volatility in spending. After a surprising rise two months ago, consumer spending unexpectedly fell last time by 0.7%. A small rise is predicted now.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
Euro/Dollar made an impressive breakout at the beginning of the week, breaking the 1.3440 line mentioned last week. The rest of the week saw range trading, but the fall on Friday sent the Euro to a weaker close.
Looking down, 1.3180 is very close and provides immediate support. It worked as such in the past week. . Below, 1.3114 also had the same role, several times this year.
1.2970 proved to be a strong line of support in the past week, just under the round number. It’s closely followed by 1.2920, which capped the pair in the summer.
Below, 1.2722 worked in both direction during the summer. It’s followed by 1.2587, the lowest level in 5 months – it was a bottom in August.
Looking up, 1.3267 provides minor and immediate resistance. It was a pivotal line in recent weeks. It’s followed by 1.3334, which was a peak earlier in the year and worked as resistance recently.
Above, 1.3440 continues to provide strong resistance, despite the temporary breakout. This is a strong line that worked as support at the beginning of the year and also a few weeks ago. Above, 1.3575 is a minor resistance line after working as support in recent weeks.
Higher, 1.37 is stronger line, after being a peak in the spring and a double bottom a few weeks ago. It’s closely followed by 1.3785 that was a swing high before the big collapse. The next minor line is 1.3865.
Even higher, 1.3950 worked as a pivotal line when EUR/USD was trading in a higher range. Strong resistance appears just after the round number, at 1.4030. There are many more lines above, but they’re still far.
I remain bearish on EUR/USD.
The debt crisis is far from over. The reactions to credit rating downgrades and warning show the Euro is still vulnerable, and the EU summit failed to provide real hope.
Here are some additional recommended EUR/USD pieces:
- Kathy Lien says Euro – Down Baby, Down.
- Andriy marks technical levels and sees a steady EUR/USD.
- David Horton wraps up the last session and shows how an IMF comment also weighs on the Euro.
- Casey Stubbs has a setup for EUR/JPY.
- TheGeekKnows writes a review of the past week looks forward.
Further reading on Forex Crunch:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.
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