The Euro had a very volatile week and eventually finished lower. The upcoming week will see an important German survey among other figures. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming week in the Euro-zone and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
EUR/USD graph with resistance and support lines marked. Click to enlarge:
The Greek troubles will continue to dominate the Euro’s situation. This is going on for quite some time. Let’s see what else will impact the Euro:
- ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT. This indicator is an important gauge of economic activity. In the past months, it has deteriorated sharply, going hand by hand with the Eurozone’s troubles, and Germany’s stagnant economy. The German indicator is predicted to dive again – this time from 47.2 to 41.9 points. The all-European figure is expected to slide from 46.4 to 42.6 points.
- German PPI: Published on Friday at 7:00 GMT. Producer prices slipped by 0.1% last month, falling short of predictions again and again. A rise is expected this time – of 0.4%. A rise in prices can lead to a rate hike, but this doesn’t seem close at the moment.
- French Flash PMI: Published on Friday at 8:00 GMT. Purchasing managers numbers will pour on Friday. The continent’s second largest economy will start. French Flash Manufacturing PMI is predicted to remain stable at 55.3 points and also the services sector isn’t expected to move from 56.3 points.
- German Flash PMI: Published on Friday at 8:30GMT. Germany has lower PMI numbers than France, but they’re predicted to rise. German Flash Services PMI is predicted to edge up to 52.5 points and the manufacturing sector is expected to show a rise from 53.7 to 54.1 points.
- European Flash PMI: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. The figures for the whole continent will complete the picture – Flash Manufacturing PMI is predicted to rise from 52.4 to 52.8 points and Flash Services PMI from 52.5 to 52.6. These figures will have a strong impact if they all go in one direction. The releases cause choppy trading.
- Current Account: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. The European balance is expected to turn from a surplus of 0.1 billion to a deficit of 0.6 billion. Yet another negative figure for the continent…
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the middle of the week, when the Greek crisis seemed to see a resolution, EUR/USD broke through 1.3750 and stopped at 1.3850. The 1.3850 line is new on the chart – it wasn’t there last week.
Further above, the previous range lines of 1.40 (also a round number) and 1.420 are still there. Higher, there are lots of important lines, but the Euro is too far from them.
Looking down, 1.3580 remains as a support line. It was breached only temporarily on Friday, so it’s still important. Lower, 1.3420 is an important support line, serving as both a clear support and resistance line in the past.
Far below, 1.3080 is the area where the Euro began the last long term move upwards. The pair is currently too far away from this line.
My bearish sentiment on the Euro remains.
Adding the fear of a new recession to the Greek debt problems, and you have a recipe for further losses.
This pair receives a lot of great commentary on the web. Here are my favorites:
- Casey Stubbs talks about the Euro bouncing off lows. I’m waiting for a fresh analysis from him.
- James Chen discusses the steep downtrend continuation potential.
- The Geek Knows reviews the last week and looks forward.
- Dan Cook on TheLFB, discusses the extreme market noise.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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