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EUR/USD is getting used to a range also after the NFP. The upcoming week contains many events that will move the Euro. Here’s the outlook for these events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

EUR/USD Forecast

A lot of progress has been made in resolving the Greek crisis, but it will probably be in the headlines this week as well and might continue to overshadow the regular indicators. Let’s start seeing them. The technical analysis will follow:

  1. Sentix Investor Confidence: Published on Monday at 9:30 GMT. This wide survey of 2,800 investors and analysts has shown a deterioration of economic conditions in recent months. The index, currently at -8.2, is expected to edge up to -7.6, still in the negative zone. Most European business surveys aren’t too good.
  2. German Industrial Production: Published on Monday at 11:00 GMT. Europe’s largest economy saw a surprising drop of 2.6% in its industrial output last month. This followed previous disappointments. A renewed rise is expected this time – 1.1%.
  3. German Final CPI: Published on Wednesday at 7:00 GMT. A month of accelerated price hikes was erased one month later, and Germany is back to stability now – a rise of 0.2% according to the initial release. This will probably be confirmed now.
  4. French Industrial Production: Published on Wednesday at 7:45 GMT. Europe’s second largest industry is more stable than Germany, but it also saw a small dip of 0.1% last month. It’s expected to rise by 0.3% this time.
  5. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Will speak on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT and on Friday at 20:45 GMT. The president of the ECB always has strong influence on Euro, as his words are carefully listened to. the first speech is at the  inauguration ceremony of the The Language of Money in Frankfurt. The second will be at Institute of Economic Policy Research, in Stanford.  The times of his speeches will sure be volatile.
  6. French Final Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Thursday at 7:45 GMT. The French employment situation is getting worse. According to the first release, the number of employees fell by 0.4% in Q4 – the sixth quarter in a row. This will probably be confirmed now.
  7. ECB Monthly Bulletin: Published on Thursday at 9:00 GMT. This publication contains the data that the ECB sees before it makes its decisions, and usually reveals economic data that hasn’t been release before. It has some impact on the Euro.
  8. German WPI: Published on Friday at 7:00 GMT. The wholesale price index gives another glimpse on Europe’s prices. A big surprise was reported last month, as prices jumped by 1.3%. They weren’t expected to budge. A rise of 0.6% is predicted this time.
  9. Industrial Production: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. After Germany and France already released their figures, the all-European number is due, but it still moves the currency and tends to surprise. Last month’s output dropped by 1.6%, quite a disappointment. A rise of half this scale, 0.8% is expected this time.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro began with a new test of the 1.3423 line, but bounced back up and reached a peak at 1.3735 before closing at 1.3612, slightly lower than last week’s close.

I’ve added 1.3735 as a minor resistance line. It didn’t appear last week. Above, 1.3780 is another minor resistance line. 1.3850 already supports major resistance for the Euro and hasn’t been breached in over a month.

Beyond 1.3850, 1.40 was a previous support line and now serves as resistance. It’s followed by 1.42, but that’s far now.

Looking down, 1.3530 is still a very minor support line. As aforementioned, 1.3423 still holds, and this is the critical line for the Euro. A break of this important line will send the Euro tumbling down to 1.3080, the only significant hurdle out there.

I remain bearish on the EUR/USD.

Europe continues to suffer from economic stagnation, unemployment and debt. Although some data is marginally better, the sentiment continues to be negative.

This pair receives lots of great review on the web. Here are a few:

  • Casey Stubbs covers the pair with his 4 hour charts.
  • James Chen sees the pair range-bound within the downtrend.
  • The Geek Knows reviews the week and looks forward.
  • Joel Kruger sees a stall in action before more possible downtrend.

Further reading:

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