After a volatile week of downfalls, Euro traders now expect the important ZEW survey, as well as other important indicators. Here’s an outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, on lower ground.
EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
Euro/Dollar lost more than 350 pips in an exciting week. The Irish problems fueled the Euro bears, as well as weak GDP. Talks about bailouts in Ireland as well as other troubled countries will continue to rock the Euro, as well as important indicators. Let’s start:
- Trade Balance: Monday, 10:00. The balance for the whole Euro-zone is released after the French and German releases. Nevertheless, the publication moves the currency. Last month saw a disappointment as expectations were for a surplus while another month of deficit was reported – 1.4 billion. Yet again, a surplus is expected.
- French Non-Farm Payrolls: Tuesday, 7:45. Europe’s second largest economy releases this interesting employment report once a quarter. After a few quarters of declines, French NFP rose in Q2, but only by 0.1%. A stronger growth rate is expected now – 0.4%.
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. This important survey of 350 analysts and institutional investors always rocks the Euro. In the past two months it has been negative – meaning pessimism about the future. From -7.2 points, it’s expected to make a small recovery and rise to -5.3, still in negative zone. The all-European figure is predicted to edge up from +1.8 to +2.3 points. The German figure is more important.
- CPI: Tuesday, 10:00. According to the initial release, consumer prices are rising at a faster pace once again – 1.9% annually. This will probably be confirmed now. Core CPI is likely to be confirmed at 1%. A rise above 2% in CPI will put Trichet in an uncomfortable position where prices are rising but unemployment is high.
- Current Account: Thursday, 9:00. Complementing the trade balance release, this wider measure of balance, including services and cash in addition to goods, is also negative. A deficit of 7.5 billion was recorded last time, and it’s now expected to squeeze down to only 2.2 billion. Any number will shake the Euro.
- Jean-Claude Trichet talks: The president of the ECB will be talking twice in a banking conference in Frankfurt – first on Thursday at 13:30, and then on Friday at 14:15 – both when trading volume is high and figures are released in the US. Trichet’s comments on sovereign debt crises, unemployment, global imbalances and monetary policy always shake the Euro. High volatility is expected.
- German PPI: Friday, 7:00. Europe’s powerhouse has seen stable producer prices recently. A rise of 0.3% last month exceeded expectations, but was still in a normal range. A rise of only 0.2% is expected now. Only a jump above 1% will raise worries.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD began the week with an immediate loss of 1.4030 (mentioned last week) and continued with losing many more lines, eventually closing at 1.3690. A terrible week indeed.
The 1.37 support line, which was the bottom a few weeks, now works as immediate resistance. 1.3830 is the next line of resistance on the way, also substituting from support.
1.3950 was a pivotal line during October’s range trading, and holds on to this position. 1.4030 is a strong line of resistance just after the round number of 1.40. It was the closing spot of EUR/USD in the previous week. Above, 1.4160 was a peak in October and it’s followed by 1.4218 – a support line from the past.
Looking down, 1.3637 serves as an immediate support line, although it isn’t strong. Lower, 1.3530 was a support line at the beginning of the year, and now has a stronger role after holding EUR/USD from falling further.
Just under it, 1.3435 provided strong support in February and is yet another minor line. 1.3334 was a peak in mid August, a peak that held for quite some time.
The next lines below are 1.3267, which provided support recently, and 1.3114, which worked in both directions many times in the past.
Even lower, 1.2920 capped the pair many times during August and when it was broken, the Euro rallied quickly. This is now a strong line of support. 1.2720 worked as resistance and then as a pivotal line during the summer. The last line for now is 1.2587, the lowest point in four months.
I remain bearish on EUR/USD.
Irish problems are far from being resolved – a declaration of an aid package isn’t an instant cure. And with American fundamentals improving, (such as the Non-Farm Payrolls), there’s still more room for falls. QE2 seems to have no impact on EUR/USD at the moment.
EUR/USD receives many excellent reviews on the web. Here are my picks:
- Kathy Lien analyzes what could happen to the Euro on an Irish bailout.
- Jamie Coleman reports that the EU wants Ireland to take aid, and analyzes the situation in the troubled Euro-zone.
- James Chen sees the bearish correction stalling at 38% retracement.
- Sophia, on Casey’s site, presents the technical levels for EUR/USD.
- Andriy sees a steady EUR/USD this week and the levels to watch out for.
- TheGeekKnows writes a review of the past week looks forward.
Further reading on Forex Crunch:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.
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