EUR/USD Outlook – September 6-10

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The upcoming week consists of industrial production publications among other figures. Here’s an outlook for European indicators and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

eur usd forecast

EUR/USD managed to cling to the uptrend channel, even through Friday’s release of US Non-Farm Payrolls, which came out better than expected. This week is rather mild regarding US releases. Let’s see the European ones:

  1. Sentix Investor Confidence: Published on Monday at 8:30 GMT. This survey of 2800 analysts and investors finally turned positive last month, for the first in a few years. The positive score of 8.2 points means optimism about the economy. Another rise to 9.3 points is predicted now.
  2. German Factory Orders: Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT. The Euro-zone’s largest economy enjoyed a fantastic leap in orders last month – 3.2%, double the expectations. Another rise is expected now, but it will probably be slower – 0.6%.
  3. German Industrial Production: Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT. Complementing on the figure from the previous day, also here growth is expected (1.1%). But contrary to factory orders, the change in the value of the industry disappointed with a 0.6% drop last month. If both figures go in the same direction this time, it will shape the direction of the Euro.
  4. German Final CPI: Published on Thursday at 6:00 GMT. Inflation isn’t a threat in the Euro-zone. According to the initial release, prices remained unchanged in August. This will probably be confirmed now.
  5. ECB Monthly Bulletin: Published on Thursday at 8:30 GMT. This collection of statistical data is what the ECB sees when it comes to make a decision. The last rate decision by the ECB didn’t include a rate hike, but it did consists of interesting thoughts about the economy. We’ll now get to see what central bankers were looking at. This always rocks the Euro.
  6. French Industrial Production: Published on Friday at 6:45 GMT. Europe’s second largest economy suffered from a big plunge in industrial output – 1.7% last month. A correction of 0.8% is expected now in this volatile indicator.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro began the week with a gradual fall below 1.2722 (mentioned in last week’s outlook) and bottomed out at 1.2625. It then made a leap upwards, and after a struggle with the 1.2840 line, it managed to close just under 1.29, a weekly gain of about 150 pips.

After this move upwards, Euro/Dollar is now in a range between 1.2840, which is a minor support line and 1.2930 which was a stubborn resistance line at the beginning of August.

Above, the round number of 1.30 is the next resistance line, working as such in July. Higher, the 1.3110 line worked earlier this year as a support line and recently as resistance and now serves as a strong line of resistance.

Higher, 1.3267 held the pair before its collapse in May and also provided some resistance in the recent surge. The last resistance line for now is 1.3435, which also changed its role from support to resistance.

Looking down, the 1.2722 line is still relevant, despite being crossed several times in the past week. It’s now a minor support line. Below, 1.2610 the swing high in July and also served as support recently is a strong support line.

Lower, 1.2460 capped the pair when it was trading lower, in May and in June. Below, the “Lehman levels” – lows of 2008, continue to provide minor support.

A strong support line appears at 1.2150, which worked as a very strong line of support, and briefly as resistance. Even lower, the round number of 1.20 is the next line of support, before the year-to-date low of 1.1876.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

Despite the hope that came from the Non-Farm Payrolls, austerity measures in Europe still make the Euro-zone vulnerable. Range trading will probably be seen at the beginning of the week, and more price action will happen towards the end of it.

This pair receives excellent reviews on the web. Here are my picks:

  • Casey Stubbs sees the buy zone for the Euro approaching.
  • James Chen posted a currency strength / weakness meter. The Euro is somewhere in the middle.
  • Kathy Lien provides the best reason to buy Euros.
  • Andriy posts technical levels for the Euro and other pairs on a weekly basis
  • TheGeekKnows provides a review of the past week and a look forward.

Further reading:

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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