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As the JPY and CAD seem to have taken the spotlight today, one wonders wht about the EUR as we approach the end of the trading week. Is the movement, or rather non-movement today simply a “pause that refreshes”? Or is the “bloom off the rose”? To many traders are involved in trading the EUR so it must be a Friday pause to regenerate for next week.

And next week the two “mega” central banks meet in the same week!! The FED meets on Tuesday and Wednesday the ECB meets on Thursday. The questions on everyone’s minds are; when will the FED end or reduce QE3 and when will the ECB cut rates? Thes are two of the more dominating questions in the FX market at present. So, what is the answer. The easy answer is “not yet and Thursday”.

Short term economic development on both sides of the Atlantic will weigh on this decision and at present those developments have been disappointing. The more obvious move is for the ECB to lower rates and most economists expect that to put pressure on the EUR.

But the US labor market had better rebound next Friday when non-farm payroll numbers for April are released or else the pressure on the EUR will be replaced by pressure on the USD.

It has become pretty clear that overall the US ecoomy is improving ahead of the Eurozone economy in terms of momentum. The negative numbers in Eurozone releases are far more than US releases. If the ECB lowers rates this week, and the FED signals an end is in sight for QE3 at this meeting and if the payroll number improves from last month, that should point to a lower EUR in the medium term.

There is a domino effect here. A weaker EUR will probably see a stronger JPY, CAD and GBP. Next week should be interesting.