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EUR/USD got into narrow range trading, clinging to the uptrend support but breaking higher.  Will the pair pick a direction? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals  and community trends.

eur usd forecast

EUR/USD within new uptrend channel, that began last week. Click to enlarge.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  EUR/USD bounced from the 1.2665 support line to the 1.2722 resistance line.
  • Current Range is between 1.2665 to 1.2722.
  • Further levels: Below, 1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150.  Above  1.2722, 1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30 and 1.3110.
  • Uptrend channel lost again: EUR/USD trades in an uptrend channel. Uptrend support began from the lows it reached on August 24th through a low on August 25th. Uptrend resistance began on a swing high on August 24th and was formed on August 26th. This is a notable line. EUR/USD lost it.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

  • 6:00: German Retail Sales. Exp. +0.6%, Actual -0.3%. Disappointment.
  • 8:00: Final Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 55 points.
  • 11:30: US Challenger Job Cuts.
  • 12:15: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. Exp. +20K.
  • 14:00: US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.2.
  • 14:00: US Construction Spending. Exp. -0.4%.
  • 14:45: US FOMC member Elizabeth Duke talks.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Market is in risk aversive mood. This means that bad US indicators are dollar positive, although devastating figures that we’ve seen in recent days just shocked the markets.
  • The 1.2610 line is critical on the downside.
  • This is a busy week, with the Non-Farm Payrolls at the end of it. There are two important hints for the NFP today – ADP NFP, which supplies a hint about private sector jobs and the manufacturing PMI, which is an indicator of economic activity in August.
  • Currensee Community: 55% are Short, 45% are long, with shortists having the upper hand. These are 949 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Note – This is a new and still experimental section on Forex Crunch. It’s still in development.

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