Euro dollar is slowly rolling up above downtrend support, as the situation in Greece remains tense, and the Chinese hopes are gone. The US calendar is becoming busy. Will we see a breakout out of range? Or will the consolidation continue?
Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.
EUR/USD Technicals
- Asian session: A quiet session sees the pair range between 1.3630 and 1.37 before sliding in the European session
- Current range: 1.3630 to 1.37
- Further levels in both directions: Below 1.3570, 1.3510, 1.3440, 1.3350, 1.3250.
- Above: 1.3630, 1.37, 1.3788, 1.3838, 1.3950, 1.4030
- Note the uptrend support line on the hourly chart. The pair is following its path.
- The really critical line of support is 1.3440. Lines before this one are minor.
- The round number of 1.37 emerges as key resistance in the current range.
Euro/Dollar following uptrend support – click on the graph to enlarge.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 9:00 European Industrial Production. Exp. +1.5%. Actual +1%. Together with a downside revision of last month’s number, this weighs on the pair.
- 12:30 US Retail Sales. Exp. +0.2%. Core exp. +0.2% as well.
- 12:30 US PPI. Exp. -0.1%. Core exp. +0.2%.
- 12:30 US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner talks. He will attend a European meeting in Poland on Friday.
- 14:00 US Business Inventories. Exp. +0.4%.
* All times are GMT.
For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast
EUR/USD Sentiment
- China will not save Italy: The Chinese prime minister made it clear that nothing new is expected – China might make bigger investments in Europe once “Europe gets its house in order”. The house isn’t in order.
- French banks downgraded: As expected, Societe Generale, which is heavily leveraged, and Credit Agricole received credit rating downgrades. BNP Paribas is still under review.
- Merkel, Sarkozy and Papandreu to speak : Leaders of Germany, France and Greece will speak today, and they might release a statement regarding the situation. Hopes for a statement yesterday helped the euro. The Greek finance minister laid out a plan to impose a property tax that would close the 2 billion euros gap that the country has. Will it pass? Greeks are quite unhappy with this, but this could secure the next tranche of aid.
- Germany getting ready for future Greek default: German chancellor Angela Merkel is officially working to prevent a Greek default. One German minister said that a Greek default isn’t “taboo”. While more senior figures say that a default is bad and that Germany is working to avoid it, the German finance ministry is already working on plans to bail out the banks in two scenarios of a Greek default: one with Greece remaining in the euro zone, and another with Greece out of it.
- Lower chance of QE3 Bernanke said he has a set of tools, but didn’t provide specifics. It seems that “Operation Twist”, lowering long term yields is the preferred action by the Fed as QE3 will be hard to pass through growing dissent in the FOMC, in addition to previous limited success. Inflation figures released this week in the US (CPI and PPI) will also have an impact on the decision.
- Swiss sugar rush: The SNB decided to set a floor of 1.20 in EUR/CHF in order to help the economy. In the meantime, this move is enjoys a really great success. A high value of EUR/CHF above the 1.20 floor allows for more falls in EUR/USD.
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