EUR/USD Sep. 28 – Dropping Out Of Narrow Range

EUR/USD dropped out of the narrow range that characterized it at the beginning of the week. How will the crowded calendar affect the drop? Here is a quick update on fundamentals, technicals and community trends.

EUR/USD dropping out of range.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  EUR/USD consolidating in a narrow range – 1.3430 to 1.3485.
• Current Range between 1.3365 to 1.3430 after the break happened early in the London session.
• Further levels in both direcstions: Below,  1.3365, 1.3267, 1.3160, 1.3110, 1.3040 and 1.2920.  Above  1.3530 (very close), 1.37, 1.3850, 1.40 and 1.42.
• Wide uptrend channel: Uptrend resistance began on Sep. 8 and uptrend support on Sep. 13. Trading is characterized with many hours of consolidation, followed by a few hours of sharp rises.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

• 6:00 German Gfk Consumer Climate. Exp. 4.3. Actual 4.9.
• 6:45 French Consumer Spending for two months. Exp. -0.1 and +0.5%. Actual -1.6% and 2.7%. Offset each other.
• 13:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Exp. +3.1%.
• 14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Exp. 52.5 points.
• 14:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Exp. 6 points.
• 20:30 US FOMC member Kevin Warsh talks.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• There are talks about a lighter QE2 in the US. Less dollar printing helps the dollar that is suffering from general weakness.
• Debt issues never went away, but the market currently disregards Irish and  Portuguese high spreads. Worries can return anytime.
• The important 1.3430 line was lost- bearish  sign.
• Currensee Community: 52% are long, 48% are short. These are 1067 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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