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EUR/USD narrowed its trading range hours before the big event. Will it “explode” after the release?  Here is a quick update on fundamentals, technicals  and community trends.

eur usd forecast

EUR/USD within uptrend channel, that began last week. Click to enlarge.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  Very quiet session, with Euro/Dollar settling between 1.2800 to 1.2840.
  • Current Range is between 1.2770 to 1.2840.
  • Further levels: Below, 1.2722, 1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150.  Above  1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30 and 1.3110.
  • Uptrend channel dominates: EUR/USD trades in an uptrend channel. Uptrend support began from the lows it reached on August 24th through a low on August 25th. Uptrend resistance began on a swing high on August 24th and was formed on August 26th. After losing it, EUR/USD returned to this range, and even tested the top limit with a swing move to 1.2855 – exactly at uptrend resistance. Currently the pair is in the middle of channel.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

  • 8:00: Final Services PMI. Exp. 55.6.
  • 9:00: Retail Sales. Exp. +0.3%.
  • 12:30: US Non-Farm Payrolls: This is the king of forex trading. Choppy trading is expected before the release. Afterwards, a V-shaped move can happen, and it can be wild. Current expectations stand on a loss of 100K jobs in general, and a gain of 40K in the private sector. The unemployment rate is predicted to tick up from 9.5% to 9.6%. It will have a rather minor role.
  • 14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Exp. 53.6 points.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Market is drifting between “risk on” and “risk off” with a tendency to “risk off”. With “risk off”, good US figures boost the dollar and bad ones hurt it. When risk is on, bad US figures boost the dollar. In recent days, we’ve seen more normal behavior.
  • The 1.2610 line is critical on the downside.
  • The Non-Farm Payrolls is a critical event that may supply the answer to the question about a double dip recession.  Very choppy trading expected.
  • Currensee Community: 56% are Short, 44% are long. These are 1005 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Note – This is a new and still experimental section on Forex Crunch. It’s still in development. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free..

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