EUR/USD Sep. 30 – Pushing Higher After Irish Dip

EUR/USD dipped before the Irish news was released but returned back to the previous range and even pushes higher towards important resistance. Where will the Euro go on this busy day? Here’s a quick update on , fundamentals, fundamentals, and community trends.

EUR/USD after Itish decision.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  EUR/USD dropped down to 1.3560 before returning to the 1.3625 area..
• Current Range between 1.3530 to 1.37..
• Further levels in both direcstions: Below,  1.35, 1.3430, 1.3365, 1.3267, 1.3160, and 1.3110.  Above  1.37, 1.3850, 1.40 and 1.42.
• Wide uptrend channel: Uptrend resistance began on Sep. 8 and uptrend support on Sep. 13. Trading is characterized with many hours of consolidation, followed by  few hours of sharp rises.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

• 7:55 German Unemployment Change. Exp. -20K. Actual -40K. Euro positive.
• 9:00 CPI Flash Estimate. Exp. 1.8%. Actual 1.8%.
• 12:30 US Final GDP. Exp. +1.6%.
• 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 458K.
• 13:45 US Chicago PMI. Exp. 56 points.
• 14:00 and 18:30. Ben Bernanke testifies. This usually has a strong impact, but this time it will be weaker, as the data was leaked, and didn’t contain big surprises.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• The Irish plan to bail out Anglo-Irish was in the expected size, maximum 34.3 million. The Irish government also said it would not raise money from the markets during October and November, as it doesn’t need it now (and the market offer good rates).
• The  big question remains about the “haircut” that debt holders will have to pay. News about the size of concessions can still rock the Euro.
• Debt issues never went away, but the market disregards them. Apart from the Irish issues, Spain got a credit rating downgrade from Moody’s.
• The inevitable second round of quantitative easing in the US weakens the dollar.
• 1.37 is important on the upside
• Currensee Community: 52% are long, 48% are short, slightly down from 52:48 yesterday. These are 1041 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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